INTELLIGENCE: Enter the year of the Taliban

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Enter the year of the Taliban

FROM AMBASSADOR GAJENDRA SINGH

http://tarafits.blogspot.com/2010/07/confusion-at-end-of-afghanistan-tunnel.html

"The Americans have the watches, but we have the time." An Afghan Tribesman

"Recent events surrounding Afghanistan shouldn't confuse anyone, --The US-NATO coalition has lost a war its political leaders never meant, or knew how, to win." Michael Scheuer, former head of the CIA's bin Laden unit

Extracts

What do the various stakeholders in Afghanistan want and what they can obtain is difficult to forecast. A declining Hegemon US can not even try what it forced on the Afghans in 2002 .It is 2010 .The Pushtuns would be the main deciders .If they can come together they can wipe out the British imposed but unenforceable Durand Line .The Pushtuns have ethnic homogeneity , Deoband ideology for now , opium and contraband trade links with neigbours and Dubai ,even a flag and perhaps Mullah Omar as one of the leaders .But they are likely to first fight among themselves as after the exit of Soviet forces . But unlike mid 1990s , after what the Pakistani , predominantly Punjabi military has done at Washington's behest and allowed raining of drone deaths , in North West Pakistan and in Afghanistan, Pushtuns are unlikely to be run by ISI .And if a Pushtun state become de jure , what happens to the other provinces in Pakistan , which has failed to even create a territory based national identity.

And what about non Pushtun people of Afghanistan , who form almost 60% of the population and oppose Taleban/Pushtun domination and ideology as they did after the Taliban were enabled to take over most of Afghanistan .Barring Karzai , a Pushtun, most of the establishment comprises of non-Pushtuns , who had resisted the Taliban under Northern Alliance .They will have support of neighbouring states , Iran, Uzbekistan, and others like a now resurgent Moscow and economically important New Delhi .What about Beijing and its dream of connecting its turbulent Turkic Uighur majority Xinjiang province to Gwadar port in Balochistan on the Arabian Sea for transfer of energy from the Gulf, bypassing the insecure sea lanes via Indian Ocean and Malacca straits , a project which Washington would do its utmost to nullify .Neither Moscow nor India would like that to fructify too.

And what about the US design to keep its military bases at least in non-Pushtun northwest Afghanistan and detach mineral rich Balochistan ( the old news about the mineral wealth was highlighted simply to justify in the eyes of the US population which has become disenchanted with the unending war in the mountains and deserts of Afghanistan.) What about Washington encouraging dissensions in Kyrgyzstan , with the multi ethnic Ferghana valley states becoming unstable and chaotic like Afghanistan and engulfing central Asia and Xinjiang .New Delhi must remember , what ever the final outcome in Afghanistan, sooner or later Pushtuns would seek good relations with India .It should re-establish contacts with Taliban and other leaders .

This sums up the problems and possible outcomes of the Afghanistan tunnel with little clear light at the end .There are other tunnels too , the Iraq tunnel , which US entered in 2003 and the keystone problem of Palestine , with Israel becoming no less important for a downsized United States , after Russians are back in Ukraine , its ally Georgia bashed by Moscow two years ago and US position becoming shaky in Kyrgyzstan.

----- Forwarded Message -----
From: Bhadrakumar Melkulangara <mkbhadrakumar@gmail.com>
To: mkbhadrakumar <mkbhadrakumar@gmail.com>
Sent: Tuesday, January 3, 2012 2:35 PM
Subject: Enter the year of the Taliban

Enter the year of the Taliban

The decision by the Barack Obama administration to transfer to Afghan custody senior Taliban official Mullah Mohammed Fazl is a smart move; Fazl has the credentials to bring Taliban leader Mullah Omar on board for launching formal peace talks. He is also the perfect antidote to Iran's influence in Afghanistan. Pakistan and Russia have already made their moves in response. - M K Bhadrakumar (Asia Times, Jan 3, '12)

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/NA04Df01.html