Well, if this plan is in the works - they truly, truly need their heads examined and I am not speaking a la 'hyperbole' here: i.e., if they thought Kunar was bad and they did as they even abandoned several outposts because of the constant defensive battles they had to fight - wait until they try to seize and hold terrain in North Waziristan (which they will have to do in order to have any effect on those tribes); - are they absolutely stupid or is the taking of hallucinatory drugs now mandatory in DC (including the Pentagon)? The tribes that frequent the Kunar passes (including foreign fighters and locals on either side of the border) have many good fighters, there is no doubt about that, but to start a war with the Mahsuds or the Orakzais or the Afridis is a whole other ball-game in a much better league of fighters entirely, and to do this with no infrastructure in the region and no history of dealing with these people beggars the imagination as to just what is going on in the minds of so-called 'rational' leaders in DC. Military sense (if they have any) demands that they will have to make it an out and out invasion - that is the only way it will work as they will have to do what the British had to do there for a century - just to keep the gunplay and associated casualties down at more acceptable levels - i.e., they will have to have many, many forts a la Restrepo (where, incidentally, the US forces played target practice for the local gun enthusiasts until it was abandoned). Of course, once US forces out and out invade Pakistan the US will be at war with Pakistan - with all the hideous ramifications that entails. How they intend to supply this war with Karachi out of the picture - unless they mount an amphibious invasion there - I have no idea.
But I am not at all convinced that the real purpose here is concerned with military necessities - not by a long shot - as I suspect that US domestic political concerns are the real engines driving this murderous nonsense forward. Here's what most likely will happen if things go according to Obama's campaign manager's plans because, remember, I suspect that this is all political theatre for Obama's re-election chances: 1.) US forces will stagger around Waziristan and with their brave Predators leading the charge they may inflict considerable damage on fighters and innocent civilians alike 2.) Regardless of the real tactical situation on the ground, they will quickly claim victory and bug out as the elections wrap up in the US in 2012; 3.) This will make Obama look tough which is what it is intended to do (yes, innocent civilians have to die in order that some politician on the other side of the globe can get his job reconfirmed); 4.) If Obama's presidential bid is affirmed by re-election you can be rest assured that the heat will be on to get American forces out of the entire area as rapidly as possible because the cost of sustaining an ongoing military failure will only continue to mount; 5.) in turn - this will then permit Obama to finesse his 'legacy' as a great US president by then posing as a 'peacemaker' and 'statesman.' In other words, a political win-win for Obama, his team and those wise sages in the Pentagon but, a definite lose-lose for all the poor and desperate locals (on either side of the Durand Line) who will be caught in the maelstrom of modern and indiscriminate firepower.
Am I cynical - I fear so and with good reason: i.e., - I had a very fine student, a USMC Captain, who was in both Fallujah battles and he was personally sickened when he saw the initiative handed over to the Jihaddis with the political pause that stopped Fallujah 1 - a pause that was ordered from Dubya's White House as the Fallujah fighting was perceived as 'not good for political business' stateside. Scott told me that everyone knew what was happening, including the Jihhadis, who could not believe their excellent luck that a pressing battle was brought to a halt in order for US elections to proceed apace with no nasty reminders of a war gone sideways.
Can DC's plans go off the rails? Absolutely! Even Hitler, a man who lived and breathed war in every fiber of his diseased being, stated that embarking on war was like "entering a dark room" where fine plans can be derailed almost instantly. Yes, the Waziristan gambit is fool's gold for a parochial American leader who does not seem to realize that when he talks of "cutting off the head of the snake" (by going after Mr. Haqqani) that he is not talking about dealing with a simple common garden-variety garter snake but, instead, a Black Mamba and no-one who has a healthy survival sense wants to corner a Black Mamba in its lair - not a smart move at all! If this particular Mamba has powerful friends he can call upon, and all the indications are that he does, the US may well find their forces lead into many valleys of death (to paraphrase the line from the Charge of the Light Brigade) and that is but at the tactical level. Heaven only knows how the Chinese would view a US invasion so close to their borders - a strategic ramification that cannot be ignored.
Then again, things may go swimmingly and all will be sweetness and light - just like in Afghanistan?
XYZ
http://www.scribd.com/doc/61839666/Indo-Pak-Wars-A-Pictorial-History
http://www.scribd.com/doc/22457862/Military-Decision-making-and-leadership
http://www.scribd.com/doc/22455178/Letters-to-Command-and-Staff-College-Quetta-Citadel-Journal
http://www.scribd.com/doc/23150027/Pakistan-Army-through-eyes-of-Pakistani-Generals
http://www.scribd.com/doc/23701412/War-of-Independence-of-1857
http://www.scribd.com/doc/22107238/HISTORY
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