ISRAEL PALESTINIAN ISSUES MAKING SOLUTIONS DIFFICULT SEPT 2011:
If a political solution is not found, within the next 50-100 years the Jews of Israel will likely become a minority in their own country making "Democracy" based upon one-man-one vote difficult to achieve if the Jewish people wish to retain political control over their territory, while land and water will give rise to continual conflict. It would seem that the Balfour Declaration of 1917 and the eventual settling of European Jews in Palestine was conflict waiting to happen:
"His Majesty's government view with favour the establishment in Palestine of a national home for the Jewish people, and will use their best endeavours to facilitate the achievement of this object, it being clearly understood that nothing shall be done which may prejudice the civil and religious rights of existing non-Jewish communities in Palestine, or the rights and political status enjoyed by Jews in any other country". http://www.mfa.gov.il/MFA/Peace%20Process/Guide%20to%20the%20Peace%20Process/The%20Balfour%20Declaration
1. Continual encroachment of Israel on Palestinian lands (See above map)
2. Critical Aquifer under West Bank that Israel will not easily give control over. See http://www.newsmax.com/deBorchgrave/israel-palestine/2009/06/15/id/330948 De Borchgrave Newsmax June 15 2009 Two State Palestinian Solution Improbable
The three principle underground aquifers of Palestine, marked in dark blue on the map, are found largely in the West Bank. These mountain aquifer areas have a water saturated substratum 200-600 meters deep. Light blue areas indicate land with less water, in which the thickness of the saturated subterranean stratum is no greater than 200 meters, with low potential water yield. Violet areas have little or no water. http://www.mideastweb.org/westbankwater.htm
3. Israel population 1948 of 806,000 to 7,746,000in 2011. 5,837,000 of the population (75.3 percent) are Jewish Israelis, 1,587,000 (20.5%) are Israeli Arabs, and not identified as 4.2% of the population, or 322,000 people http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/Society_&_Culture/newpop.html .
4. Between Israeli Independence Day 2010 and 2011, approximately 178,000 babies born , and 43,000 people passed away http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/Society_&_Culture/newpop.html
5. "Palestinians have higher fertility rates than Israelis, currently 5.4 and 4.2 children per woman in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, respectively, versus 2.9 children per woman in Israel, and this leads to more rapid rates of population growth among the Palestinians – 3.2 percent versus 1.8 percent annually, respectively" and thus by 2050 the two populations of Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory (West Bank, Gaza Strip, East Jerusalem http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinian_territories) would be roughly equivalent in size, or about 10.5 million each. http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/foreign-policy-challenges-new-us-president-%E2%80%93-part-ii
6. Population "densities for Israel, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip – today around 350, 450 and 4,300 persons per square kilometer, respectively – are expected to increase to approximately 500, 1,000 and 12,500 persons per square kilometer by 2050". http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/foreign-policy-challenges-new-us-president-%E2%80%93-part-ii
7. In comparison, Rwanda population density is currently the highest in continental sub-Saharan Africa with 345 per sq km in 2000) http://www.iss.co.za/Af/profiles/Rwanda/Population.html a key reason for the genocide (shortage of land, conflict of lifestyles between pastoralists and farmers in addition to politics)
8. "It will be increasingly difficult for Jewish Israelis to maintain their current dominant majority of 76% within Israel. As fertility rates are higher among Arab-Israelis than Jewish-Israelis – around 3.7 versus 2.8 children per woman" http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/foreign-policy-challenges-new-us-president-%E2%80%93-part-ii
9. "Arab-Israelis now account for one-fifth (20%) of the total population of Israel, they're expected to increase to one-quarter by 2025 and may reach 30% by 2050". http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/foreign-policy-challenges-new-us-president-%E2%80%93-part-ii
10. Under a "One State Solution" in which, "Israel, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip would combine into a single democratic state with Arab and Jewish residents holding citizenship and equal rights...in 2010, its total population would be nearly 12 million, with the numbers of Arabs and Jews being roughly the same size, each slightly below 6 million. However, due to their substantially higher rates of population growth, the Arabs in this new state would soon outnumber the Jews, and by 2050 Arabs would account for nearly two-thirds (66%) of the one-state population. http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/foreign-policy-challenges-new-us-president-%E2%80%93-part-ii Israel will thus not buy into this.
11. Under a "Two State Solution A", (Gaza/West Bank one state and Israel) "Without the return of the Palestinian refugees, Israel remains larger in size than the population of the new Palestinian State up through mid-century when both are about the same size. However, if the Palestinian refugees (from the neighboring countries) were to be included into the new Palestinian state in 2010, it would be slightly larger than Israel at the outset". http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/foreign-policy-challenges-new-us-president-%E2%80%93-part-ii Without the West Bank, Israel can only expand upward – would mean no new land available???
12. Under a "Two State Solution B", (Israel/West Bank one state and Gaza another state) "Jews in this new state (assume they mean Israel/West Bank) would represent approximately 55% of the population in 2010 and remain the majority up until around 2030; thereafter they would be a decreasing minority http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/foreign-policy-challenges-new-us-president-%E2%80%93-part-ii
13. Under the "Three-State Solution" there would be three independent states: Israel, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. "Israel remains substantially larger than either the West Bank or the Gaza Strip unless the Palestinian refugees from the neighboring countries are incorporated into the population of the West Bank in the year 2010, then this new Palestinian State population (assume means West Bank?) would outnumber Israel in 20 years". http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/foreign-policy-challenges-new-us-president-%E2%80%93-part-ii Without the West Bank, Israel can only expand upward – would mean no new land available???
14. Given the important aquifers noted above & "With more than 100 Jewish settlements, approximately a half a million settlers and an extensive Israeli presence throughout the West Bank, Israel has become for all practical purposes solidly integrated into the West Bank. Consequently and in contrast to Israel's disengagement from the Gaza Strip, withdrawal from the West Bank would likely be a logistical and emotive nightmare for the Israeli government" http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/foreign-policy-challenges-new-us-president-%E2%80%93-part-ii But then Jews in Israel would have to be prepared to be a minority in a Democratic country as noted above after 2030
15. Land and water are major issues. With population growth, Israel can expand upward with high rise buildings or outward into Palestinian territories (means more conflict) between a Jewish minority and an Arab majority.
16. In addition, any scenario that eventually gives Arab-Israelis the majority vote under a Democratic system will likely not be acceptable to Israel.
17. Thus a quandary, if the West Bank is incorporated into Israel, it will not be long before the Arab-Israelis will be the majority, whereas, Israel needs the West Bank as a place for population expansion and to control access to vital water supplies.
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