US Attack Plan on Pakistani Nukes-Assessments from 2007 till 2009

Sunday, August 07, 2011

Share this story!             US prepares for worst-case scenario with Pakistan nukes * Musharraf warns snatch-and-grab operation will lead to all-out war  Daily Times Monitor As US-Pakistani relations spiral downward, the specter of a showdown between the increasingly antagonistic allies is garnering more attention, including the worst-case scenario of the US attempting to "snatch" Pakistan's 100-plus nuclear weapons if it feared they were about to fall into the wrong hands. That would be a disastrous miscalculation, former president and army chief Pervez Musharraf told NBC News, saying that such an incursion would lead to "total confrontation" between the United States and Pakistan Privately, current and former US officials say that ensuring the security of Pakistan's nuclear weapons has long been a high national security priority, even before the September 11 terrorist attacks, and that plans have been drawn up for dealing with worst-case scenarios in Pakistan. The greatest success of the US war on terrorism – the military operation that killed Osama bin Laden in his safehouse in May – has fueled the concerns about Pakistan's nuclear arsenal, increasing suspicions among US officials that he had support within the ISI, Pakistan's intelligence service, and emboldening those in Washington who believe an orchestrated campaign of lightning raids to secure Pakistan's nukes could succeed. It's no secret that the United States has a plan to try to grab Pakistan's nuclear weapons - if and when the president believes they are a threat to either the US or US interests.  In the aftermath of the bin Laden raid, US military officials have testified before Congress about the security of Pakistan's nuclear weapons and the threat posed by "loose nukes" – nuclear weapons or materials outside the government's control. And earlier Pentagon reports also outline scenarios in which US forces would intervene to secure nuclear weapons that were in danger of falling into the wrong hands. But out of fear of further antagonising an important ally, officials have simultaneously tried to tone down the rhetoric by stressing progress made by Islamabad on the security front. Such discussions of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal, now believed to consist of as many as 115 nuclear bombs and missile warheads, have gotten the attention of current and former Pakistani officials. In an interview with NBC News early this month, Musharraf warned that a snatch-and-grab operation would lead to all-out war between the countries, calling it "total confrontation by the whole nation against whoever comes in." "These are assets which are the pride of Pakistan, assets which are dispersed and very secure in very secure places, guarded by a corps of 18,000 soldiers," said a combative Musharraf, who led Pakistan for nearly a decade and is again running for president. "… (This) is not an army, which doesn't know how to fight. This is an army, which has fought three wars. Please understand that." Pervez Hoodboy, Pakistan's best known nuclear physicist and a human rights advocate, rarely agrees with the former president. But he, too, says a US attempt to take control of Pakistan's nukes would be foolhardy.  "They are said to be hidden in tunnels under mountains, in cities, as well as regular air force and army bases," he said. "A US snatch operation could trigger war; it should never be attempted." Despite such comments, interviews with current and former US officials, military reports and even congressional testimony indicate that Pakistan's weaponry has been the subject of continuing discussions, scenarios, war games and possibly even military exercises by US intelligence and special operations forces regarding so-called "snatch-and-grab" operations. "It's safe to assume that planning for the worst-case scenario regarding Pakistan nukes has ready taken place inside the US government," said Roger Cressey, former deputy director of counterterrorism in the Clinton and Bush White House and an NBC News consultant. "This issue remains one of the highest priorities of the US intelligence community ... and the White House."  Mindful of the growing distrust and suspicions between Washington and Islamabad, US officials have publicly tried to defuse concerns that Pakistan's nuclear arsenal could be compromised. Adm Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Congress two weeks ago that Pakistan's atomic arsenal has become "physically more secure" and the US has seen "training improve" for personnel charged with securing the weapons.  Publicly, US officials don't want to embarrass or infuriate Pakistani officials by suggesting such an operation would be possible, a point brought home in a White House press conference on April 29, 2009. After President Barack Obama spoke of the confidence he had in the Pakistani Army's ability to secure the nuclear weapons, NBC News' Chuck Todd began to ask if the US military would step in and seize weapons that were at risk. Obama quickly cut him off. "I'm not going to engage in hypotheticals of that sort. I feel confident that nuclear arsenal will remain out of militant hands, OK?"

ASSESSMENTS BY A.H AMIN FROM 2007 TO 2009

FIVE MINUTES OVER ISLAMABAD-OCTOBER 2007

http://www.countercurrents.org/amin260907.htm

5 Minutes Over Islamabad

By A.H Amin

26 September, 2007
Countercurrents.org

There appears to be a strong evolving consensus in the USA as well as its NATO allies that Pakistan is the centre of gravity of the Islamists in the ongoing so called war on terror.This idea gained currency in various high US policy making circles as well as think tanks around 1987-89 and then assumed a solid shape in the decade 1990-2000.After 2001 it was adopted as a policy and concrete albeit top secret planning was started to deal with Pakistan which at the ulterior level was seen as part of the problem rather than a solution.

When the Spaniards landed in Mexico their main collaborators were indigenous Mexicans themselves ! In Pakistan thus the USA made use of indigenous collaborators ! Generals whose sons had a US passport ! Bankers who were US nationals but also dual Pakistani citizens ! Thus these leaders justified collaboration with the USA after 9/11 on the grounds that what they did was the only guarantee for the survival of Pakistan !

The Pakistani military junta in 2001 was isolated internationally so it was very easy for the USA to overawe it with one telephone call ! The typical career army officers life consists of aiming to get a good annual report from his boss ! Pakistan's military leadership grasped this opportunity to get a good pat from their geopolitical strategic boss the US president and with open hands provided airbases and all logistic support to the USA ! This was a short term measure so that Pakistani military junta's survival in power was ensured ! It had no connection with survival of Pakistan as a state ! Compare how Iran is surviving as a state despite defying the USA since 1979 ! Later on a fiction that USA threatened Pakistan with bombing it to the stone age was invented ! Thus irresolution was rationalized as supreme strategic brilliance ! Ironically some so called media men who are also running private businesses were in the forefront in praising this strategic timidity as strategic brilliance !

What happened in " Real Strategic Terms" was that with Pakistani military junta's active collaboration i.e logistic support and air bases the USA was able to occupy Afghanistan very cheaply and with minimum casualties ! This was no mean strategic achievement as it placed the USA right below the soft underbelly of China as well as Russia ! More significantly it reduced the flying as well as striking time to the Pakistani nuclear as well as missile installation.Close proximity to Pakistan also enabled the USA to conduct intelligence operations inside Pakistan in a far more optimum manner than ever before.

It was theorized in secret sessions of the highest level US decision making circles that although the Islamists fighting the USA had no fixed centre of gravity which could be attacked and eliminated, Pakistan with its sympathetic pro Islamist populace and nuclear and missile assets was at least a provisional centre of gravity of the Islamists.Note that US feared , not the ISI , not the tinpot Pakistani military junta , but the sentiments of the vast bulk of the Pakistani populace and its arsenal of nuclear warheads and missiles !

Thus Afghanistan was seen as a potential US base to carry out a 5 minutes over Islamabad or Kahuta just like the Israelis with US cooperation destroyed Iraq's nuclear reactor in 5 minutes over Baghdad in 1981.

In 1945 the USA had bombed Hiroshima and Nagasaki not for any direct military purpose but to overawe the USSR that no one could match US military might.The USSR had faced the challenge and developed a fine nuclear arsenal to counter US aspirations to control the world.Later China also emerged as another challenger of USA ! Thanks to USSR help many South Asian countries as well as African countries fought and won wars of liberation ! The Arabs were able to confront Israel only because of Soviet aid till the collaborator Sadaat sold his soul to the USA and Israel !

The USA was all set to reduce Pakistan to size in 1977 when it financed the anti Bhutto agitation in 1977 ! This plan was delayed because of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan from 1979 till 1989 when the USA had but no option other than using Pakistan as a base for assisting the anti Soviet War in Afghanistan.

Change of posture came very quickly when after 1990 the USA started talking that Pakistan is a terrorist state or was on the brink of being a terrorist state.This was basically a war of nerves the decisive point of which was one telephone call which made Pakistan's tinpot military junta take the so called " brilliant strategic decision" of collaborating with the USA !

After the disintegration of the USSR , strategically speaking the US military targets were the littoral states of the Indian Ocean .Thus the Iraq War of 1990 , the Invasion and capture of Iraq of 2003 and the invasion of capture of Afghanistan in 2001.

Interestingly Iraq and Afghanistan were not ultimate objectives of US onslaught but merely initial bridgeheads.This was only Phase One ! Phase Two may include Pakistan and Phase Three may include Iran ! Phase Four being Chinese Singkiang and/or Central Asian Republics ! Somewhere the Americans call it Orange Revolution whose first good example was the anti Bhutto agitation that they financed in 1977 in Pakistan ! Sometimes they call it a war on terror or war against weapons of mass destruction !

History has proved that generals fail as statesmen ! In 1936 all of Hitlers generals opposed his decision to march into Rhineland ! This is so because generals think only in tangible terms ! They do not appreciate the value of intangible factors like resolution etc ! Thus after 9/11 when Pakistan's tinpot junta wargamed being invaded by USA it only thought in military terms ! It failed to appreciate that the USA was humbled in Vietnam and in Iran in 1979 ! In the process they allowed and facilitated the USA to occupy Afghanistan in very cheap military terms ! Pakistan shall pay a heavy price for this ! Whether Armitage said it or not , the USA will bomb some parts of Pakistan to the stone age in order to denuclearize Pakistan.

Pakistan is in a strange strategic situation ! It is led by a military dictator whose sole aim is to stay in power ! Its number two the so called prime minister is a US citizen and in case he dies naturally or unnaturally his successor i.e the Chairman Senate is also a US citizen ! So politically the USA is dominant in Pakistan ! But this does not make the Americans happy ! Their aim is denuclearization and complete submission of Pakistan !

Imagine the following scenario ! Pakistan's military dictator is killed in a mysterious air crash or assassinated by a common soldier on duty like Indita Gandhi ! The USA immediately issues an ultimatum that it fears that Pakistan's nuclear arsenal may fall in the hands of extremists ! A surgical nuclear strike is launched on Kahuta and Islamabad !Another general takes over power in Pakistan and capitulates to all US demands dismantling the Pakistani nuclear arsenal and its missiles ! Rationalising this on the ground that if he did not do so the USA would bomb Pakistan to stone age ! In next ten years Pakistan is Balkanised with an independent US supported Baluchistan and an independent puppet Pashtun state in NWFP and Northern Pashtun majority districts of Baluchistan ! An independent Sindh in the South , an independent Kashmir and Northern Areas with US bases for future operations against Singkiang on the Deosai Plateau and only Punjab left as Pakistan ! No nukes , no missiles , no resolve ! Just like the Christians reduced the Muslims to Granada in Spain and finally eliminated even Granada in 1492.

This is not a pessimistic view of things but a hard strategic reality ! The writing is clear on the wall ! The war which USA is fighting is not against the Pashtun tribes of Waziristan but against all Muslims ! Bagram , Khost,Jalalabad and Kandahar airfields are being developed not against the Taliban or against the Al Qaeda but for 5 minutes over Islamabad !

In strategy everything moves very slowly and it is the greatness of a statesman and military commander to assess what will happen in next 5 or ten years ! Here in Pakistan we have a situation where our military leaders are overawed by just one phone call ! From leaders of such a caliber little resolution or strategic insight can be expected !

From 1979 to 1988 Pakistan's military junta after seizing power through the backdoor , provided the USA with an active base to destabilize and destroy Afghanistan's defacto government . All infrastructure of Afghanistan was destroyed as well as all its institutions between 1979 and 1992 .Now if the Afghan state allows the USA to do so it should not be a surprise ! And why did Pakistan's military junta of 1977-88 support the so called Afghan Jihad ! So that General Zia stays in power ! The characters were different in 1979 and 2001 , but the motivation was the same !

Someone may skeptically view the above presented scenario ! The following arguments support the presented scenario ! If Saddam was destroyed on the mere suspicion that Iraq possessed Weapons of Mass Destruction why is Pakistan not a perfectly legitimate target for USA , because it is a Muslim country and posseses WMD without any doubt ! Saddam was more secular than any Muslim leader in modern history yet his country and he himself were targeted and destroyed ! What is the aim of this so called enlightened Islam espoused by Musharraf ! To act as anesthesia for USA and destroy all resistance power of the Pakistani nation ! If not strategic brilliance at least we have good anesthetists at the top ! In war surprise is the key so the USA will not politely announce its intentions before it reduces Pakistan to size ! Musharraf , Benazir and any other general that may emerge are merely pawns in the game which can be removed by air crashes or assassinations ! Waziristan , Al Qaeda and terrorism are merely hollow slogans ! The Pakistan Army is being forced into Waziristan by the USA not to attack the Al Qaeda but to create an internal divide in Pakistan ! There have been many cases of desertion of soldiers in units in Waziristan as well as cases of refusal of officers for carrying out duties seen as against their conscience ! What kind of liberalism does Musharraf want us to practice when the enemy is at the gates and even inside the Pakistani citadel of power ! What can be expected from leaders whose sons are US citizens or who consider USA safer for their families to live than Pakistan ! What can be expected from US citizens now enjoying high political office in Pakistan after having a good time in Bank of America or CITI Bank ! What respect will the army jawans have for leaders more distinguished for deciding not to fight a battle after one telephone call or more interested in privatizing the PSO , PTCL or the Steel Mill !

5 Minutes over Islamabad is a distinct possibility ! This is the irony of a nation who supplied many pilots who were blood brothers of Syrian,Iraqis and Jordanians in downing many Israeli aircrafts over Golan , Amman and Iraq ! Today the Pakistani leaders are practicing sycophancy with Israel to gain a good pat from USA !

The conclusion is that Pakistan is led by collaborators who will go to any extent to survive while its nuclear and military assets would be destroyed with partial or active cooperation of its own leaders ! Fear made men believe in the worst but here in Pakistan we have a scenario in which Pakistan's leaders are trying to sell the idea that timid strategic collaboration is strategic brilliance ! A secret clause of Vision 2030 propaganda of Pakistani sitting leadership is that by 2030 Pakistan would be a Balkanised state with no nuclear and missile assets and kicked by all its neighbours ! Good luck to vision 2030 !

 

12 December, 2008

A BRIEF STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT OF US PRESENCE IN AFGHANISTAN MADE IN SEPTEMBER 2005-USA CHINA STRATEGY-USA AND CHINESE MUSLIMS-KURDISTAN-BALOCHISTAN

A BRIEF STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT OF US PRESENCE IN AFGHANISTAN MADE IN SEPTEMBER 2005

BY

AGHA AMIN

The distinction between Islamist and non Islamists is being fast transformed into US versus Anti US Forces. Afghanistan may prove to be an area of strategic convergence for Islamists,China,Russia and even Pakistan and Iran which are logically phase two US targets. It is naieve to think that the USA came to Afghanistan to deal with the Talibs.

USA's choices

• Deal with Afghanistan alone and consolidate.This would not be cost effective for USA.The investment it has made is too big.
• Widen the front to phase two.Pakistan and Iran.Phase three may be Chinese Singkiang and Phase Four Central Asian Republics.
• Withdraw from Afghanistan while retaining a central position to strike at any target in the area.Possibly an independent Baloch state carved out of Iran and Pakistan or Iran alone at first and Pakistani Baluchistan later.

China and Russia's Choices

• Allow USA an uncontested stay and risk a Muslim rising in Singkiang in the next ten years and US domination of Central Asian republics.
• Aid anti US forces using non state actors in Pakistan and state actors in other areas.
  Strengthen alliances with Iranian and Pakistani states.

Pakistan and Iran's choices

• Accept US domination and scrap WMD programmes.
• Strengthen alliances with China and Russia.
• Aid anti US forces in Afghanistan with Chinese and Russian blessings.

Major Actors

• The anti US forces are divided in two parts , state and non state actors.
• Main bases of non state actors are in Pakistan,Iran and Middle East.
• The Pakistani and Iranian states are the forward states having direct borders with Afghanistan and are involved in the Afghan game via state and non state actors.

Key Strategic trends

• Realisation in Pakistan that Pakistani WMD apparatus is a future target of USA with Afghanistan as base.
• Realisation in both China and Russia that the strategic salvation of both lies in aiding anti US groups , particularly in Afghanistan.
• Pakistan as the best base area of anti US groups operating in Afghanistan more because of non state actors.
• In order to deal with non state actors USA at some stage will have to deal with both Pakistan and Iran.
• USA seems strategically clueless and is playing a waiting game.
• Time is the key , anti US forces can wait for ten years but every second USA is losing money .
• USA has to achieve a tangible strat objective.
• Both China and Russia will use the Islamic card like USA used it in Afghanistyan from 1979 till 1989.
• Militarily an anti US war in Afghanistan aided by China and Russia can prove to be USA's Spanish ulcer.
• Anti US forces in Afghanistan Pakistan and Iran are intact and can change the strat balance.US hold in Afghanistan is confined to key cities.
• The drug mafia is a major US opponent and can sustain anti US forces in Afghanistan.
• Islamists have realised that they must have China and Russia as allies.
• The same realisation is taking place in China and Rusia.
• Thus the convergence of interest.

US strategic options are:--

• To create alternate drug mafia which is non Pahtun and create new states which are US allies like Balochistan,Kurdistan .
• And possibly a non Pashtun state in North Afghanistan.

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14 January, 2009

USA's FUTURE STRATEGIC TARGETS IN WEST ASIA IN CASE USA DECIDES TO PURSUE AN AGGRESSIVE POLICY-CLICK ON MAPS TO ENLARGE

CLICK ON MAPS TO ENLARGE

22 May, 2009

US PLAN TO DESTABILISE AND DENUCLEARISE PAKISTAN FROM TINPOT MUSHARRAF TO 2009

IN STRATEGY EVERYTHING MOVES VERY SLOWLY SO THE GREATNESS OF A GENERAL OR A STATESMAN IS TO SEE THESE SLOW BUT CERTAIN MOVEMENTS.IT HAS BEEN MY STRATEGIC CONVICTION SINCE 2001 THAT USA CAME TO AFGHANISTAN TO DENUCLEARISE PAKISTAN AND TO START A PHASE TWO AND THREE AGAINST CHINA AND RUSSIA.THESE IDEAS WERE ADVANCED IN MY ARTCLES IN PRAVDA,NATION,ORBAT.COM ETC SINCE 2001.UNFORTUNATELY PAKISTAN WAS BETRAYED FROM INSIDE BY TINPOT MUSHARRAF.

US strategic plan for Pakistan-A.H Amin-Published Daily Nation ,28 May 2009

Home » Opinions » US-strategic-plan US strategic planPublished: May 28, 2009 A.H. AminEvery movement in history has a direction, a quantum, a modus operandi. According to the father of the philosophy of war Carl Von Clausewitz everything in strategy moves slowly, imperceptibly, subtly, somewhat mysteriously and sometimes invisibly. 

The greatness of a military commander or statesman lies in assessing these strategic movements.The USA inherited a historical situation in the shape of 9/11.At this point in time it was not making history if we agree that 9/11 was the work of Al Qaeda for which so far the USA has failed to furnish any solid evidence. After 9/11 when the USA attacked Afghanistan ,US leaders and key military commanders were making history. They had a certain plan in mind. The stated objectives of these plan were the elimination of Al Qaeda. The unstated objective was the de-nuclearisation of Pakistan. This scribe has continuously held this position held consistently in articles published in Nation from September 2001,all through 2002,2003,2004,2005 and till 2009.

The US strategic plan followed the following distinct phases:--

* An initial manoeuvre occupying Afghanistan in 2001.

* Establishing and consolidating US military bases near the Afghan Pakistan border. Most prominent being the Khost, Jalalabad, Sharan and Kunar US bases. 

Some military bases like Dasht I Margo in Nimroz and three other bases in Kandahar, Badakhshan and\ Logar were so secret that their construction was not even advertised. 

Even in case of sensitive areas the contracts were awarded to the US Government owned Shaw Inc and the CIA proxy operated Dyncorps Corporation. Patriotic Afghans trained in USSR were removed from Afghan Intelligence because they would not agree to be a party to USA's dirty game in between 2001 and 2007.

Similarly many patriotic Afghan officers trained in USSR were removed from the Afghan military establishment.

* Cultivating various tribes in ethnic groups on the Pakistan Afghan border by awarding them lucrative construction and logistic sub contracts.* Forcing the Pakistani military to act against the FATA tribes thus destabilising Pakistan's North West area close to the strategic heartland of Peshawar-Islamabad-Lahore where Pakistan's political and military nucleus is located.

* Creating a situation where mysterious insurgencies erupted in various parts of Pakistan including FATA, Swat and Balochistan.

* Carrying forward urban terrorism into Punjab through various proxies.Now it appears that the strategic plan is entering its final stage of launching a strategic coup de grace to Pakistan. 

These may be assessed as following :--

* US military buildup in Afghanistan and launching of an offensive against Taliban with an aim of pushing them into Pakistan.

* Simultaneously pressurising the Pakistan Army into launching an operation in Waziristan. Thus Pakistan Army gets severely bogged down and hundreds of thousands of refugees enter Pakistans NWFP and Balochistan provinces. Infiltrators and fifth columnists being a heavy promiscuous mixture of this movement.

* Since 2001 the USA has spent a great fortune collecting information on Pakistan's strategic nuclear assets. It appears that in 2009 it has sufficient data to launch a covert operation.* The covert nuclear operation could have a civilian and a military part. The civilian part may involve an attack on Pakistan's non-military nuclear reactors like Chashma and KANUPP. The military covert operation could involve an attack on any of Pakistan's strategic nuclear groups anywhere in Pakistan. 

Once this type of attack is done the USA with its NATO lackeys like Britain, France and Germany would go the UN and manoeuvre an international resolution demanding denuclearization of Pakistan. The international opinion may be so strong that Pakistan's government may capitulate.

* Once Pakistan is de-nuclearisaed the USA would encourage Pakistan's Balkanisation into a Baloch US satellite , a city state of MQM in Karachi, a Pakhtunistan badly bombed and in tatters and a Punjab stripped of nuclear potential , kicked and bullied by India. A Northern Area republic which is a US lackey unless China decides to call the US bluff by occupying the Northern Area.

What is the answer to this:

* An immediate clean break with USA/NATO and closing all NATO/US supply lines to Afghanistan.

* Mining and barbed wiring the Afghan Pakistan Border.

* Allowing the FATA agencies to import goods for Afghanistan duty free and scrapping the old Afghan Transit Trade Accord thus economically boosting the FATA.

* A military alliance with China with a Chinese Naval base at Gwadar.* A rapprochement with Russia and offering the Russians free port facilities at Gwadar.

* Creation of a maritime province in Gwadar and Lasbela districts insulating these areas from the Baloch Sardars on payroll of US intelligence.

* Creation of a Pashtun Province in the Pashtun districts of Balochistan with Quetta as its capital.

* Cancelling all mineral concessions to all European/Australian/American companies in Balochistan and grant all mineral concessions to Chinese companies.

Everything is not inevitable in history. 

The ablest navigators can defeat the worst sea storms. Pakistan needs strategic and political vision. It may be necessary to have a military government to do all this in case the civilians prove inept.