INTELLIGENCE: July 2010

Friday, July 30, 2010

Lonely in the region

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: gajendra singh <kgajendrasingh@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, Jul 30, 2010 at 7:36 PM
Subject: Lonely in the region
To: Gajendra Singh <kgajendrasingh@gmail.com>

Lonely in the region

T.V. Rajeswar Indian Express 30July 2010

At the end is piece by TV Rajeswar , former director of the Intelligence Bureau and governor of Sikkim, West Bengal and UP, and very close to the dynasty, moaning after the Wikileaks that US must have known about the attack on Indian Embassy in Kabul and did not take corrective reaction and even perhaps knew about 2611.( emphasized).

Misleading friends and allies is usual policy with Washington.During the Iraq-Iran war in 1980s , when West and its Arab allies sided with Baghdad to stop the Iranian revolution from over whelming the latter ,US granted loans of billions to Baghdad and supplied many times misleading info about Iran's military dispositions

.Two days before Saddam Hussain sent his troops to Kuwait, US amb April Galspie told him that Iraq -Kuwait dispute was bilateral affairs .Next day State department said something similar .Galspie disappeared from public scene for some times .The rest is terrible history for Iraqis which continues .

After the invasion of Kuwait in 1990, Washington told ally Riyadh with doctored aerial photographs that Iraqi troops were posed to invade Saudi Arabia , which was false .

A Turkish deputy PM told me that," Mr Ambassador, you can not trust the Americans even on what they give you in writing ."

But we trust Washington since we love US presidents deeply .British colonial rule was beneficial to India , which was devastated and looted.

Washington might make up with Iran , but at US insistence we have burnt most boats with Tehran.If US or Israel or together bomb Iran, west will decline very fast .Moscow will gain , China will lose its energy wells .

China is trying to give Nuc power stations to Pakistan, to get that Delhi compromised its future strategic options .Where are the bought out Indian strategic writers or former Indian diplomats to US who were trotted out at Rs 5000 per pirouette to promote US interests by our celebrity and trivia obsessed TV channels

I have been asserting this since 2611 and even earlier that US knows about these attacks and is happy to let India and Pakistan squabble and damage each other .India goes running to Washington , becoming more reliant on it and US exercises more pressure on Islamabad for its objectives in Afghanistan .Where are Indian interests .Who will protect them ?

Looking around , it appears that India is becoming a ' Banana' Republic. Look at our parliament, state assemblies, Judiciary and other state organs and their decline .

Take care Gajendra

INDIA'S FATAL SOMNATH SYNDROME

"--Mahmood reached Somnatha in the middle of January, 1025, and found there a strongly defended fortress on the seashore. The Hindus, who assembled on the ramparts of the fort, were passing their time in merrymaking, fondly believing that Somnatha had drawn the Muslims there only to annihilate them for the sins they had committed in demolishing idols elsewhere. Their morale was high even though their leader had fled away in cowardice with his family to a neighbouring island. The following day the Sultan began the assault--Next day-- the brave resistance offered by Hindus was of no avail-- Bands of Hindus in succession entered the temple to pray with all their hearts for victory, and then coming out of it rushed against their enemies, only to be killed. In this way more than 50,000 Hindus sacrificed their lives to defend the honour of their deity. The Sultan made a triumphal entry into the temple, broke down the Sivalinga into pieces and took possession of vast wealth. The temple was then razed to the ground. The fragments of Sivalinga were –serve as steps at the gate of Jami mosque (in Gazni)--"

Page 20 ,The Struggle for Empire, The History and Culture of the Indian people ,Volume five (1966), Bharatiya Vidya Bhavan, Bombay.Ed.K.M.Munshi

Through out Indian history many Indian rulers and its elites have remained fascinated with the idea that a supernatural power would save them. Now they believe that a super power would come to their rescue and resolve their problems. Most of the problems are created by them or have been aggravated by their not acting in time .Many times by their not acting at all in the hope that the problems would sort themselves out or just disappear. Why take hard decisions or say bitter truths.

So after 11 September, like those assembled on the ramparts of the Somnatha fortress , Indian policy makers , analysts , media pundits and politicians went on an orgy of celebrations. 'We had told you so '. Now that the infernal terrorists had attacked New York and Washington , the centre of supreme power on the earth, USA would rescue India too. With open support from Pakistan , terrorists had been hitting India in Jammu and Kashmir or where ever they wanted to. Now that they had attacked the sole super power in the universe, Lord George Bush would decimate them and India would be saved .After all India and USA were the biggest and the richest democracies and terrorists were now their common enemies, so went the argument.

An unthinking ruler is an absentee ruler

There is little institutionalized policy formulation in India , only rituals .Ad hocism is the new mantra. So without much thought or weighing pros and cons, Indian leadership went overboard and offered India as the frontline state against terrorism in Afghanistan (and Pakistan. ). Perhaps all intelligence material was passed on to USA , without much in return!. Forget about strategic thinking, even recent history is not a strong point with the Indian leadership. How had the Americans fought for democracy in South Vietnam and elsewhere. How their support in Afghanistan to protect the democratic world against ungodly and communist Soviet Union has led to catastrophic consequences for Afghanistan and others in the region . Even for Pakistan with its short sighted policy of cutting the nose to spite the face ie India . It were the CIA funded and ISI trained Jihadis who had stunned the world by attacking New York trade towers and the Pentagon --

Amb (Retd ) K. Gajendra Singh 28 December, 2002 .Bucharest

Lonely in the region

T.V. Rajeswar

Indian Express 30July 2010

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/lonely-in-the-region/653803/

The numerous documents put out by WikiLeaks, extending over a period of six years and now available to the world at large, have posed several crucial lessons. These lessons are for India as well as the United States.

That terrorism has been practiced as an instrument of state policy by Pakistan over the years is known to India all along. It started with General Zia-ul Haq in 1979 and has gone on unabated. We have had several serious instances such as the Kargil military misadventure in 1999, the attack on the Indian Parliament in 2001 and the Mumbai attack in November 2008. The man responsible for planning the Kargil war, General Pervez Musharraf had started preparing for the Kargil attack even as Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee was visiting Lahore in early 1999 for peace talks with Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif of Pakistan. After Musharraf subsequently took power in Pakistan after a military coup, India was magnanimous enough to invite him for parleys at Agra in the summer of 2001. His arrogance was evident during his surprise press conference where, inter alia, he referred to India's intervention in East Pakistan resulting in the birth of Bangladesh. The Agra talks failed, as they were bound to.

The subsequent efforts to hold constructive dialogue with Pakistan at places like Sharm el-Sheikh and the recent efforts by the foreign secretaries, home ministers and foreign ministers of both the countries were bound to fail for the simple reason that Pakistan was not prepared to take any constructive steps to end terrorism, much less punish those involved in terrorism. The WikiLeaks disclosures have proved that the ruling force of Pakistan, which is the army led by General Ashfaq Kayani and its dominant wing, the ISI, are only interested in promoting conflicts against India, Afghanistan and even the American-led coalition.
David Headley's disclosures are far more important from the Indian point of view than all the WikiLeaks documents put together. Though formally affiliated to the Lashkar-e-Toiba, he was in fact being handled by the ISI, the Pakistan army and the navy. Senior army officers as well as retired ones from the ISI were guiding the potential Mumbai attackers in a thoroughly professional manner. Money was given by the ISI and the Pakistan navy also trained them. The numerous trips that Headley made and the targets he mapped were meant for a large-scale unofficial war. While India and Pakistan were negotiating through various back channels and also holding formal talks, Headley's mission went on undisturbed.
The most important aspect of Headley's disclosures is that they were subsequently made available to Pakistan and India by the US. The dossier given to the Pakistan home minister by his Indian counterpart was possibly redundant. The reference made by the Pakistan foreign minister to these disclosures by the Indian home secretary was possibly meant to mislead the Pakistanis. India need not have reacted to it at all at any level.
A thought may occur to someone analysing Headley's disclosures and his antecedents in Pakistan and the US, whether his activities and the project he was entrusted with by the LeT were not known to his original handlers, who were none other than the FBI and the CIA? In short, did these agencies have a hint, if not full awareness of the planned attack on Mumbai in November 2007? Deniability is an easy instrument available to intelligence agencies all over the world and presumably they would deny any such knowledge. India should realise that at the end of the day it has to depend upon its own resources and strength. To expect the US to ensure that Pakistan would not resort to terrorist attacks against Indian targets would be unrealistic. It has not happened all these years. A simple example will explain this: the US knows all about the numerous training camps in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir for training jihadis to infiltrate Kashmir and possibly other parts of India. The satellite maps and ground intelligence reports were all with them, and yet the US had never spoken about them openly, nor had it ever announced that it would hold Pakistan responsible if any terrorist activities were mounted from these camps against India.
After specific intelligence was available regarding the ISI's role in planning the attacks on the Indian embassy in Kabul in 2008 and 2009, there was no report of the US sternly warning Pakistan to desist from such activities. The sad fact is that whatever Pakistan had done, or is doing against India covertly or overtly, the US would ignore and only express sympathy and support to India. Even after the WikiLeaks documents, the American national security advisor has talked about having close cooperation with the Pakistan army. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton handed over a cheque for $500 million for developmental activities in Pakistan and at the same time, held that some people in the Pakistan army knew about the exact location of Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri, but would not do anything to help nab them.
The Pakistan government has pre-empted a military takeover by General Kayani by giving him a three-year extension and thereby conceding indirectly that the army and Kayani in particular will guide and direct the government in Pakistan. A former ISI chief who continues to employ people like ex-ISI chief Hameed Gul could not be expected to think in terms of any peaceful settlement with India on pending issues.
India should, therefore, be prepared for all eventualities and set its own house in order. The Kashmir issue should be sorted out after purposeful talks with the Kashmiri people, the National Conference, the PDP, the Hurriyat and others. A solution is not difficult to arrive at if sincere efforts are made at all levels. And as for terrorist attacks from across the border, India has to anticipate them and be prepared and alert.
The writer is former director of the Intelligence Bureau and governor of Sikkim, West Bengal and UP.
express@expressindia.com

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

AN AMERICANS COMMENT ON MY MAP ABOUT GRAND CONTRADICTIONS IN US STRATEGY

Thus - only way to stop American adventurism is a Draft that means all families will be looking at what we are doing overseas and ask, "Is this really a War of Necessity" as our beloved president claims and in most cases they will say "NO!!!"

The other problem is that we are an all volunteer professional army. Thus, the average family doesn't worry about their son or daughter going to ear - not their problem. Thus the majority of Americans are not affected by our foreign interventions until something like 911 and then we get this "Blind Flag Waving Patriotism" and don't ask why - we just say go and get the baddies - giving our political elites and the military industrial complex free reign!!

My guess is many of the young lower rank soldiers are not that well educated & come from lower middleclass or poor families - the military guarantees them a job, food, clothes, roof over their heads and given today's economy - not a bad deal. They are easily turned into killing machines and if they die - other than their immediate families - they are like beggars in the street - cannon fodder, expendable - that no one cares about - likely the case for most militaries - you won't see the sons and daughters of the elite on the front lines if at all - and if at all most likely they will be protected in the Green Zone!

Major Amin: Thanks - a picture tells a 1,000 words as they say. You are educating a lot of people. I am sorry but our political elites don't represent our people and I fear many of the youth are brainwashed with filtered information and ideology - they haven't lived and seen the world so are easily manipulated and mislead. I guess this is a global problem today and you with think with the INTERNET and the information age it would be hard to do - but our media is controlled by the corporates.

Regards Andre
Subject: Fwd: GRAND STRATEGIC CONTRADICTIONS IN US MILITARY STRATEGY INAFGHANISTAN AS PLOTTED ON MAP

GRAND STRATEGIC CONTRADICTIONS IN US MILITARY STRATEGY IN AFGHANISTAN-BY AGHA H AMIN

GRAND STRATEGIC CONTRADICTIONS IN US MILITARY STRATEGY IN AFGHANISTAN

Sunday, July 25, 2010

TERROR LAND

Family under attack

I wish to inform the human rights and journalistic community that our family is being harassed and isolated due to allegations of being 'unpatriotic' against my elder brother Habib R Sulemani. His yet to be published novel The Terrorland, which is partially set in the tribal area, has enraged the establishment, which obtained its draft by some means. Besides the harassment of my younger sister, attempts have been made to kill my brother and he has been living locked inside our home in Rawalpindi for the last four months.

A group of influential journalists, government officers and secret agencies are involved in this harassment campaign. We have knocked at the government's door but to no avail. Even human rights activists are keeping silent in our terrorised country. There is a complete media blackout in this regard. However, we have maintained a group blog to convey our miseries to the nation and the world. I request the readers to help us bring these harassers to justice.
GHULAM REHMAN
Rawalpindi

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Saturday, July 24, 2010

ANALYSIS: Penchant for self-destruction —Mir Mohammad Ali Talpur

ANALYSIS: Penchant for self-destruction —Mir Mohammad Ali Talpur

History is replete with instances of genocides, murders and atrocities for thwarting peoples' aspirations to a life of dignity and freedom; these failed elsewhere and will fail here too

The killings in Balochistan, past and present, have been rightly termed as madness. But this is not a purposeless madness; it has a purpose, a sinister one at that, which has been exhibited by states the world over to achieve the ominous objectives that states pursue in the hunt for delusionary self-preservation and repressing dissidents.

States create an atmosphere of fear and intimidation for the targeted population. This practice is as old as slavery, colonialism and annexations. Its practitioners universally follow similar tactics because it is essentially based on brutal force; despite lofty aims and names, its face never changes. Though used lavishly in Balochistan it has not succeeded yet, nor will it in future.

Questions are being asked why Habib Jalib or Liaqat Mengal, moderate and articulate representatives of a mainstream, federation-favouring political party, were assassinated by death squads. The answer is that the oppressors fear even peaceful defiance because defiance, like submissiveness, is contagious. Having faced 63 years of repression, the Baloch understand that the present round will certainly not be the last.

The eve of July 15 was chosen for Habib Jalib's assassination because Balochistan observes it as Martyrs' Day in memory of the 1960 hangings of Nawab Nauroz Khan's son and comrades. It was to rub in the fact that the Baloch can and will be killed with impunity. The judicial inquiry instituted to investigate the murders of Ghulam Mohammad Baloch and other Turbat martyrs remains dormant, as the culprits are all too powerful.

History is replete with instances of genocides, murders and atrocities for thwarting peoples' aspirations to a life of dignity and freedom; these failed elsewhere and will fail here too. Examples abound but only a few will suffice.

The Sharpeville massacre on March 21, 1960 in which at least 180 black Africans were injured and 69 killed when the South African police opened fire on approximately 20,000 demonstrators protesting against the pass laws which, since the 1920s, had restricted the movements of black South Africans. They, in their own country, could only go where the white supremacist regime considered fit. These passes helped enforce the apartheid segregation. In Balochistan too, movement is subtly and overtly restricted by the innumerable check-posts that dot the landscape.

The Soweto uprising of 1976 erupted because the apartheid regime denied people the right to learn in their own language. Between 1972 and 1976, 40 new schools were built in Soweto, South Africa, as the state needed better-qualified labourers. The Afrikaans Medium Decree of 1974 forced all black schools to use Afrikaans and English in a 50-50 mix for teaching, denying education to Africans in their native language. Then deputy minister of Bantu education, Punt Janson, said, "I haven't consulted the African people on the language issue and I am not going to." The decree was deeply resented by blacks as Afrikaans symbolised apartheid, or in the words of Desmond Tutu, "the language of the oppressor". The public education system in Balochistan, too, is geared to produce semi-literate labourers because, apart from the usual fare, the students are burdened with Arabic.

On April 30, 1976, to register their resentment, the students at Orlando West Junior School in Soweto went on strike. Their rebellion soon spread to many other schools in Soweto. On the morning of June 16, 1976, thousands of black students walked towards Orlando Stadium for a rally to protest against having to learn through Afrikaans carrying placards saying: "If we must do Afrikaans, Vorster must do Zulu." (Balthazar Johannes Vorster was then the prime minister of South Africa.)

Colonel Kleingeld, a police officer, fired the first shot, after which there was mayhem. More gunshots were fired and terrified students were screaming and running. Then rioting began and 23 people, including two white people, died on the first day in Soweto. On June 17, 1,500 heavily armed police officers carrying automatic weapons, stun guns and carbines entered Soweto in armoured vehicles with helicopters hovering above. The government claimed only 23 students were killed. In fact, there were more than 500 fatalities with the wounded estimated to be over a thousand men, women, and children. The Soweto Uprising further galvanised the urge for freedom.

Steve Biko, a leading founder of South Africa's Black Consciousness Movement, was only 31 years old when he died in a prison cell in Pretoria on September 12, 1977. He had incessantly struggled for the rights of Africans against the brutal apartheid regime. He was expelled from his first school for 'anti-establishment' behaviour. Whilst at medical school, Biko founded the South African Students' Organisation (SASO), which provided legal aid and medical clinics for disadvantaged black communities.

Biko was banned by the apartheid regime in February 1973. The ban meant that he was not allowed to speak to more than one person at a time, his movement was restricted and he could not make speeches in public; he also could not be quoted. He was detained and interrogated four times between August 1975 and September 1977 under the anti-terrorism legislation.

It was during his last detention he was hit on the head at the security police headquarters in Port Elizabeth and then transported lying naked in the back of a Land Rover for a 12-hour journey to Pretoria where he died of brain damage. The then Justice Minister James Kruger said he died due to a hunger strike. Eventually, they admitted he died of brain damage but said the injuries were the result of a self-inflicted suicide attempt and a murder charge could not be supported because there were no witnesses. The struggle for ousting the apartheid regime intensified and succeeded because, however brutal a regime, people cannot be held in bondage forever. Balochistan's recent history is full of unsung Steve Bikos.

This purposefully mala fide madness as employed by states, is eventually, and fortunately so, self-defeating, because it pushes the inbuilt self-destruction button which all states invariably possess. Had it not been for this penchant for self-destruction, which ironically is considered self-preservation, the world would still have been ruled by the Roman or an XYZ empire, by the Mughals, or an XYZ dynasty, or the offspring of Hitler or another XYZ.

The use of force as the choice method of containing the aspirations of the people has always backfired and is boomeranging in Balochistan as more and more people cherishing their dignity and rights keep joining the ranks of those who seek radical remedies to their problems. The states' penchant for self-destruction, though initially severe on the people, eventually becomes the reason for their freedom.

Mir Mohammad Ali Talpur has an association with the Baloch rights movement going back to the early 1970s. He can be contacted at mmatalpur@gmail.com

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2010\07\25\story_25-7-2010_pg3_5

Friday, July 23, 2010

Drug-Infested Ferghana Valley: Target of the Axis of Three Devils

Drug-Infested Ferghana Valley: Target of the Axis of Three Devils

By Ramtanu Maitra

July 14—The Ferghana Valley, which straddles three Central Asian nations—Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan—has become the prime target of the axis of three devils—Britain, Saudi Arabia, and the drug traffickers. These forces made their move during the breakout of organized riots in southern Kyrgyzstan in early June, posing a threat to the newly elected Roza Otunbayeva administration. According to the government in Bishkek, the riots claimed as many as 2,000 lives in an effort by the drug mafia to incite Uzbeks and Kyrgyz against each other.

The riot came to an end within a week, but the threat of violence is very much in the air. Taaahe Drug mafia, boosted by the massive opium production in Afghanistan and a virtually uninterrupted passage of Afghan heroin through the Ferghana Valley to Russia, has joined hands with the Saudi-funded and Britain-centered Wahhabi jihadis of Hizb ut-Tahrir (HuT), who spawned the terrorist group functioning in the valley, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). The IMU attempted in the past to infiltrate Uzbekistan through southern Kyrgyzstan. Their aim was to overthrow President Islam Karimov's regime and establish a supranational theocratic government, known as the Caliphate, in Central Asia. This is also the objective of the HuT and Saudi Arabia, which funds the HuT's "Islamic" activities.

The British objective is to start a process of partitioning Kyrgyzstan, setting into motion a long war in the rest of Central Asia that will pose a threat to all sovereign nation-states, including Russia to its north. In Kyrgyzstan, the drug mafia was helped by the now-ousted Kurmanbek Bakiyev Administration's family members, who control the drug mafia. There are also the pawprints of bankers, business executives, and the entertainment industry, all of whom derive financial benefits from the unaccounted-for stash of cash generated day in and day out by the drug cartel, and, in return, provide these criminal elements the necessary cover.

Drugs in the Valley

Cut up by Bolshevik dictator Josef Stalin into three parts during 1924-36, the Ferghana Valley has the highest density of population in Central Asia. Batken and Osh provinces in Kyrgyzstan together have 34 persons per square kilometer; Jalal-Abad, situated in Kyrgyzstan, has 26 persons. A very large percentage of these are youths (40% in the Kyrgyz Ferghana). The Ferghana Valley holds a very significant portion of the three countries' overall population—27% of Uzbekistan, 31% of Tajikistan, and 51% of the Kyrgyz Republic, with 10 million people living in the valley.

One of the principal factors contributing to the violence in the valley is drug-trafficking and associated criminalization of society. The violence, orchestrated by the HuT and the IMU, began to emerge in the 1990s, as opium production began to soar in Afghanistan, and all three devils set their eyes on the Ferghana Valley as their next target. The Afghan civil war, which followed the Western arming and training of the mujahideen to fight the Soviet Army in Afghanistan, found a stable funding source: Afghan opium. Afghanistan's opium production was 350 tons in 1986, and 4,581 tons by 1999. Following the occupation of Afghanistan by the U.S. and NATO forces, opium production rose to 8,200 tons in 2007. The opium began to flow across the Tajik-Afghan border, and then along the mainly uncontrolled and mountainous Khorog-Osh-Andijan road (the "Opium Highway").

The UN Office of Drugs and Crime (UNODC) has highlighted the IMU control of heroin and opium in the Ferghana Valley, as well as the supply chains that run through the Batken region of Kyrgyzstan, here border control lacks financial and human resources to monitor this section of the Kyrgyz-Tajik border. In recent years, in the city of Osh, organized crime groups have developed trafficking routes through neighboring Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, despite tighter border measures on the Uzbek side.

Once the drug traffickers had set up their distributors inside Russia, flow of Afghan heroin became almost the only business in the Ferghana Valley. In addition, large-scale unemployment, political instability, and isolation of the Central Asian states created a fertile ground for an increasing number of people to join drug-trafficking activities.

The level of opiate production in Afghanistan now is twice as high as it was in the whole world a decade ago. In 2010, Afghanistan has taken the lead in hashish production, with the crop estimated at 3,000 tons. According to the UNODC figures, Afghan opium kills up to 100,000 people every year worldwide—more than any other drug. The Afghan opium is consumed by 15 million people, two thirds of whom are heroin addicts, the UNODC report indicates.

The drug-related criminal activities began to spawn violence in the valley in the 1990s, as it became a warehouse of huge caches of arms and armaments. To counter the terrorists who are in league with the drug traffickers, neighboring states brought in a large number of armed security personnel. As a result of some of their actions, violent crime rose, and even disputes over water and land were "settled" by violence.

Beyond that, the drug traffickers have set their eyes on the valley to make it a major drug production center. Bestowed with plentiful water and highly fertile land, the area is already a major producer of hashish and opium. It now produces an estimated 25% more hashish than the rest of the world combined. Within Central Asia, over 4.5 million hectares of hemp is planted in Kazakstan's Chuy Valley—an amount capable of producing approximately 6,000 tons of hashish annually. It was estimated in 1997 that 2,000 hectares of opium poppy were planted in Kazakstan, capable of producing 30 tons of opium annually. Although this is not a great amount, areas in Kazakstan and Kyrgyzstan are considered ideal for widespread cultivation of opium poppy.

When Kyrgzstan was part of the Soviet Union, its Issyk-Kyl Valley supplied 95% of the raw opium for the Soviet pharmaceutical industry. Since then, sporadic anecdotal evidence has emerged suggesting that some heroin production laboratories exist in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan—allegations that both governments have officially dismissed.

Preacher-Terrorists in White Robes . . .

Drug-trafficking has brought in illicit money, along with the terrorists backed by the British and the Saudis. The most visible and powerful jihadi group operating in the valley is the HuT. The U.S. State Department's 2008 Country Reports on Terrorism suggest that the membership in Kyrgyzstan in HuT, a group that the U,S, State Department says advocates "the establishment of a borderless, theocratic Islamic state throughout the entire Muslim world," grew from 5,000 in 2006 to 15,000 in 2008. The Institute of Ethnology and Anthropology of the Russian Academy of Sciences pointed out as far back as Dec. 31, 2001 that the HuT has, in effect, become the strongest political force in south Kyrgyzstan.

By acting within the constitutional framework that guarantees freedom of expression, the movement has scored points against the authorities, who are perceived to be corrupt. According to the local press, over a third of all young people in the southern Kyrgyz city of KaraSuu are under the influence of radical eligious organizations. The institute said that, according to the information available to the local law enforcement agencies in 2001, over 2,000 members of HuT were being monitored by the police in Kyrgyzstan.e Axis of Three Devils: The

The State Department report on terrorism in 2009 pointed out that the group is gathering strength in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which is also home of an unknown number of HuT members, primarily in the northern part of the country, in the Ferghana Valley, as well as other Islamist groups including al-Qaeda. The report highlighted various U.S.-led counterterrorism initiatives that the government of Tajikistan participated in, but noted that impoverished circumstances in Tajikistan made it difficult to effectively combat terrorism.

A Nixon Center researcher, cited by Maj. Daniel J. Ruder, U.S. Army School of Advanced Military Studies, Fort Leavenworth, Kan., in his monograph "The Long War in Central Asia: Hizb ut-Tahrir's Caliphate" (2006), disclosed that the HuT's secret headquarters is thought to be in Jordan, while its key deputies operate a London-based headquarters to oversee HuT operations in Muslim countries. In addition to providing funds and educational material from its London base office, the HuT manages one of its main websites in London, as well as a publishing house. It receives financial support from wealthy patrons in Saudi Arabia who subscribe to the group's Wahhabi message.

Britain is now HuT's de facto headquarters for fundraising and grooming recruits, and supports HuT activities throughout the world. The main spokesman for HuT is Dr. Imran Waheed, who led a rally of 8,000 Muslims in London in December 2005, and has been recorded saying, "There can be no possibility of harmonious co-existence between Islam and the West. Ultimately one has to prevail." Waheed, educated at Birmingham University School of Medicine as a psychiatrist, is now working for the National Health Service (NHS) at the Queen Elizabeth Psychiatric Hospital in Birmingham, with a special interest in medical training.

Born and bred in Britain, Waheed, during his rally, said, "Fighting in the way of Allah is the only solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict. There is only one solution to the occupation of Muslim lands, one solution to the cries of the widows and the orphans, one solution to avenge the deaths of the elderly and the children. Fight, in the way of Allah, those who fight you! Al-Jihad!"

Hizb ut-Tahrir's strategy for Central Asia is to use the region's extreme poverty, repressive political systems, and perceived social injustices to convince the population that the current political structure must be destroyed, to be followed by a just and fair caliphate, based on Islamic law (Sharia). If successful, the HuT strategy would allow them to eventually overthrow one of the secular Central Asian governments, that of Uzbekistan.

Radio Free Europe reports that "Leaflets from Hizb ut-Tahrir, now found virtually everywhere in Central Asia, call for the overthrow of the Uzbek government, regularly insult President Karimov, and call for the creation of an Islamic caliphate" in Uzbekistan. Experts assert that one reason the HuT is focused on Uzbekistan, is because Uzbeks fill the rank-and-file of the organization.

Therefore, as the logic goes, the HuT would direct most of its efforts against Uzbekistan rather than against a country they are less affiliated with. Another reason suggested by those experts is that Uzbekistan has the most formidable military and best-trained police in the region, and poses the greatest obstacle to the HuT achieving their goals. In other words, Uzbekistan is the lead domino in the line of Central Asian states. If it can be knocked down, then others will go. To achieve that end, the Ferghana Valley is the key.

The protracted war in Afghanistan, and subsequent responses by the Taliban, has further activated the fighters of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan. In the coming days, the IMU could launch large-scale incursions in the Ferghana Valley to establish fuel, arms, and ammunition transport routes. HuT may change its nonviolent approach and attempt to mobilize supporters for the armed struggle. Unidentified terrorist groups may seek to assassinate the leaders of the three countries, especially if outside troops are allowed to enter their territory.

In Uzbekistan, the epicenter of both the incursions and social unrest is the region around Namangan in the Ferghana Valley. The unrest spawned here over the years may spread later to all three of the country's provinces located in the Ferghana Valley. The authorities may be left with no choice but to wage a war not only against the rebels, but against all believed to be supporting the protests and the actions of the IMU and the HuT. As a result, the general population residing in the areas of the incursions and protests will suffer, and parts of the population could be displaced to the country's interior.

. . .and Their Gunmen

The gunmen, promoting HuT's goal, are the terrorist members of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan. Founded in the 1990s in Kabul by two Ferghana Valley terrorists, Namangani and Yuldeshev, the IMU works hand-in-glove with the HuT and al-Qaeda. Facing a crackdown in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, Yuldashev met with Osama bin Laden, before deciding to move his operations from the Valley to Afghanistan in 1997. The organization is also believed to have received funding from Saudi sources, including some close to Prince Turki al-Faisal, the then-head of Saudi intelligence.

The Ferghana Valley has been the main area for IMU operations. According to security personnel in Uzbekistan, IMU recruits directly from the HuT. Evgenii Novikov pointed out, in his article for the Jamestown Foundation's Terrorism Monitor (Vol. 2, No. 22, May 9, 2005), quoting Dr. Rafik Saifulin, that, in the case of Tajikistan, "HuT military structures can develop quickly since the HuT branch in that country has had some contact with the violent Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). It is in Kyrgyzstan that HuT has the greatest potential to develop armed capabilities not least because the party is developing a sophisticated infrastructure in that country."

Another important collaborator in making Ferghana Valley the drug center of Central Asia, is Britain's George Soros, the multi-billionaire currency speculator. Soros, identified in the mainstream media as a philanthropist, spends his ill-gotten money to fund campaigns for euthanasia and to legalize drugs. EIR has documented Soros's extensive financial support for nonprofit organizations working for the legalization of drugs, in many articles over the past 15 years.

According to Soros, "The war on drugs is doing more harm to our society than drug abuse itself," and since "substance abuse is endemic in most societies . . . the war on drugs cannot be won." (Washington Post, Dec. 4, 1996 and Feb. 2, 1997). This is the campaign he carries out using the Open Society Foundation (OSF), Open Society Institute (OSI), Soros Foundation, and the Human Rights Watch, based in New York.

The OSF is extremely active in the Ferghana Valley, although it lost its operational base in Uzbekistan in 2004 when President Karimov kicked out the Open Society Institute. That Karimov was right, was proven within a year when, backed by the U.S.-based National Endowment for Democracy (NED) and Freedom House, and with the HuT fighting for them on the front line, Soros successfully carried out the "Tulip Revolution" in Kyrgyzstan. The Tulip Revolution saw the ouster of President Askar Akayev and the ushering-in of President Kurmanbek Bakiyev, who was already involved with the drug mafia in southern Kyrgyzstan, where his family members, using Bishkek's authority, later took control of the drug operations.

This alliance of the drug mafia, Bakiyev family , and the British would not have posed a mortal threat if Kyrgyzstan had built up its institutions. Like all the Central Asian nations, Kyrgyzstan, following its independence, was administered by the apparatchiks of the old Bolshevik regime. These apparatchiks were periodically removed by other apparatchiks through violence because the ruling leader, and his family, continued to loot and pillage the country. One characteristic of these leaders is that they refuse to set up the kind of institutions that would allow normal, democratic functioning of the government in power.

But today this can only happen in the context of a global solution. The current planetary crisis demands an alliance of the world's leading powers—the U.S.A., Russia, China, and India—as the core of a new world system committed to the economic development for all nations, including Central Asia.

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Pakistan Is a Victim of Obama’s Afghan War

Pakistan Is a Victim of Obama's Afghan War

by Ramtanu Maitra

July 17—On April 22, 2009, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned in her testimony before the House Foreign Affairs Committee, that Pakistan was in danger of falling into terrorist hands: "I think that we cannot underscore enough the seriousness of the existential threat posed to the state of Pakistan by continuing advances, now within hours of Islamabad, that are being made by a loosely confederated group of terrorists and others who are seeking the overthrow of the Pakistani state, a nuclear-armed state."

One year later, while the Obama Administration continued its mindless Afghan policy, which no one within the Administration can define, the dynamics within Pakistan have worsened further. There is evidence that Pakistan just might be caught in a whirlpool of violence which could result in an eventual breakup of the country.

To prevent such a catastrophe, most Pakistanis have come to the conclusion that what is needed is an immediate withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan. Recent polls have shown that support in Pakistan for the Taliban has dropped dramatically, as violence has exploded. An opinion poll by the International Republican Institute conducted last Summer found that 80% of Pakistanis believed the country should not cooperate with America in the war on terror. Another poll, conducted by Gallup last December, shows that no more than 5% of the population in any of the country's four provinces believes that the Taliban has a positive influence on their lives, including a meager 1% in the North-West Frontier Province, bordering the troubled Afghanistan.

This became evident following a twin suicide attack on July 1, that killed 42 at Pakistan's most important Sufi shrine in the Punjab city of Lahore. The attack was organized by the militant Deobandis—a small minority in Pakistan that works hand-in-glove with the Wahhabis funded by the Saudis. The majority of Pakistanis, particularly in the provinces of Punjab and Sindh, are moderate Barelvis, imbued with a tinge of Sufi traditions. The anger among the Pakistani population against the United States and its role in Afghanistan has been increased by the killing of civilians, by drone attacks carried out by the International Security Assistance Forces (ISAF), from across the border. The killings, which have multiplied during President Obama's reign in the White House, are being construed in Pakistan as a punishment dealt to it by the United States.

Ahmed Humayun's article in the July 9 Foreign Policy magazine, "Pakistan's Suspicious Public," cited Pakistan's Geo-TV interview, in which a Pakistani said: "America is killing Muslims in Afghanistan and in our tribal areas. Militants are attacking Pakistan to express anger against the government for supporting America." One laborer in the northwest city of Peshawar, which is subjected to daily violence, pointed out that, "since America's arrival in Afghanistan, terrorism has come to Pakistan. As soon as it quits, peace will come to this region."

Pakistani anger against the foreign troops has now spilled over to include both the military, and the civilian government. Many Pakistanis express their belief that the United States, in particular, is waging this war to create a pretext for seizing the country's nuclear weapons. And, the Pakistani establishment has taken to waging war against its own citizens, under pressure from Washington to "satisfy" the United States that it will not allow the nuclear weapons to fall into the hands of the militants.

Pakistan has become an epicenter of terrorist activity since late 2001. At least 8,500 terrorist attacks have killed as many as 9,000 civilians and law enforcement personnel, and injured about 21,000, between the end of 2002 and April 2010, one report indicates. Casualty tolls do not capture the cumulative effects of terrorism on the body of the country, however.

Homegrown Terrorists

What makes the situation even more dangerous is that Islamabad, since the days of the late military dictator Zia ul-Haq, had set up, nurtured, and trained, a group of terrorists as a battering ram to force India to give up its "occupation" of Kashmir, the disputed state created under the aegis of the British Raj in 1947. Washington allowed the terrorists to expand their activities during the 1980s; they then were picked up by London, which wants an independent Kashmir. Washington, using the Pakistani military and intelligence to give a bloody nose to the Soviet Army, which had invaded Afghanistan in 1979, paid no attention to this development.

Following the Soviet withdrawal in 1989, the terrorist forces, under the wing of the Pakistani military and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), began to grow stronger, with the intent of prying Kashmir out of the grip of "Hindu India." While the Pakistani ISI provided them the land and training centers, the Saudis, who had close ties to Zia ul-Haq, funded them, and Britain's MI6 "used" them to meet the British Empire's objective: to create a country straddling India, Pakistan, and China. The terrorist groups were created by those who were eager to carry out the Saudi-promoted Wahhabi doctrine, which is to set up a worldwide Islamic caliphate. Islamabad, driven by its zeal to hurt "Hindu India."

These terrorist groups include Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), Sipah-i-Sahaba, Jamat ud-Dawa, Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), Lashkar-i-Jhangvi (LeJ), Hizb ut-Tahrir (HuT), to name few. Of the lot, LeT, is one of the largest and most active militant organizations in South Asia and is currently based near Lahore. LeT also operates several training camps in Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Some breakaway LeT members have also been accused of carrying out attacks in Pakistan, particularly

in Karachi, to oppose the policies of former President Pervez Musharraf.

U.S. intelligence also accuses the Pakistani intelligence of helping and protecting LeT. The second most dangerous group, HuT, with its vast network throughout Asia, the Middle East, and even in the United States, is centered in Britain and Jordan. It recently set up its headquarters in Pakistan in Lahore, issuing an open statement that its aim is to overthrow the government through a "bloodless military coup," or by violence, if necessary, and create a caliphate in Islamabad.

In the post-Soviet-occupation of Afghanistan, many of these groups, LeT and HuT in particular, became close to the Osama bin Laden-led al-Qaeda, and the terrorist group, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), operating to topple the Central Asian governments. Both al-Qaeda and IMU openly admit, as do HuT and LeT, that their objective is to establish a caliphate. It became evident at that point that the terrorist groups functioning within Pakistan have a greater objective than simply taking Kashmir from "Hindu India"; they have become the armed warriors—calling themselves jihadis—working on behalf of the British and the Saudis to perpetuate violence over a vast region, and to plunge it into a long war.

The failure of Islamabad to recognize the nature of this animal became exposed after the United States and NATO unleashed their mindless war in Afghanistan. The foreign forces, operating within Afghanistan since 2001, drove the terrorists, such as the Arab dominated al-Qaeda and the Uzbek-dominated IMU, into Pakistan. Beyond India, these terrorists then targeted the United States and NATO as their principal enemies.

On the other hand, Islamabad, under former Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, welcomed the foreign invasion of Afghanistan, and acquiesced to taking on the terrorists who had infiltrated Pakistan's tribal areas. The Pakistani Army did not have the wherewithal to eliminate the terrorists, who by then were already in the British and Saudi net.

As a result, the terrorists recruited freely from the tribal areas, giving birth to what is widely recognized as the Pakistani Taliban. But, Musharraf's, and the Pakistani military's, efforts to eliminate them by making incompetent forays in these areas, at the behest of Washington and Brussels, caused a great deal of bloodshed, and drew the wrath of the entire Pushtun population residing in Pakistan's tribal areas and the North-West Frontier Province. The common people there revitalized their ethnic identity with the Afghan Pushtuns, who were also victims of the U.S.-NATO war in Afghanistan. By allowing foreign troops to carry out drone attacks, which were started in 2007, the Pakistani government has further alienated its population.

Some Pakistani officials have said on record that deployment of the drones is a violation of its sovereignty, even though they have killed high-profile al-Qaeda and Taliban figures who want to topple the Zardari government.

A Dilapidated Economy

The war that Islamabad fought most unwillingly at the behest of the foreign forces inside Pakistan, and which gave rise to intense violence inside the country over the past few years, has also brought further calamity to the weak Pakistani economy. In his meeting with President Obama's Af-Pak envoy Richard Holbrooke, in Lahore July 16, President Zardari expressed his concerns over the consequences of the U.S. war against militancy in the region, and said, Pakistan's industrial growth and export potential have been severely restricted, first because the region was a theater of war against the rival ideology in the past." That, at best, can be described as a carefully worded understatement.

A decline in GDP growth, reductions in investment, lost exports, unemployment, and the depreciation and inflation of incomes and exchange rates, characterize the economy. The price of security-related and civil relief operations also demonstrates the magnitude of terrorism's costs: Pakistan has spent an additional $4 billion since 2007, according to the Interior Ministry's 2010 National Crisis Management Cell reports, or 2.4% of the average GDP, on fighting terrorism. Pakistan's economy edged up just 1.8%, and things aren't looking any rosier this year.

The government has also spent $600 million during this fiscal year to help the more than 3 million people displaced by terrorism and counter-terrorism operations. Pakistan faces a permanent crisis in the social and economic welfare of the population, due to the diversion of development spending into the security budget, capital flight, and brain drain, and due to the trade diversion it has suffered since 2001, according to the 2010 report. Total energy consumption declined 5.2% in 2009 from 2008, and energy consumption in the industrial sector fell by 11.7%, as a result of the energy crisis, according to the report.

The power situation in Pakistan is now horrendous, giving rise to open violence, exacerbated by the suffering caused by the intense summer heat. The country has production capacity of about 16,500 megawatts of electricity, but faces a shortfall of between 4,000-5,000 megawatts. Outdated grids, lack of investment in existing plants, and rampant electricity theft, mean that some companies experience line losses of 30-40%, analysts say. Lengthy power outages, known as load-shedding, can last six to eight hours a day in cities, while power cuts can be much more frequent in rural areas.

As a result of the economic downturn, Pakistan is now firmly under the International Monetary Fund's grip. In talks with the IMF in Washington in April, Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani said that his government was trying to broaden Pakistan's tax base and keep the budget deficit "close to" 5.1% of gross domestic product, according to a statement from his office. Pakistan turned to the IMF for an emergency package of $7.6 billion in November 2008 to avert a balance-of-payments crisis and shore up reserves. The loan was increased to $11.3 billion in July 2009; and the central bank received the fifth tranche of $1.2 billion in May. But, as always, the IMF loan came with "conditionalities" meant to further distort the economy with privatization. The IMF is now urging the government to remove all subsidies on electricity, which will lead to higher prices for consumers. Authorities have already raised electricity charges significantly.

The Impending Danger

The understanding, or at least the recognition, of where this threat really comes from is wholly lacking in Washington. The impending danger that worries Pakistan's establishment, of which its military is the most powerful segment, is that the breakup of Pakistan could follow a U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Further presence of U.S. troops in Afghanistan, on the other hand, could make the breakup inevitable. To further the prospect of balkanizing the region, British operatives, such as Jason Burke, in his article in the Feb. 15, 2009 London Observer, are pushing for the creation of a "Pashtunistan" out of the areas occupied by some 40 million Pashtuns in southwestern Afghanistan and western Pakistan.

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China Brief - Volume X, Issue 15

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July 22, 2010 - Volume X, Issue 15

IN THIS ISSUE:

In a Fortnight
By L.C. Russell Hsiao

The Chinese Navy's Emerging Support Network in the Indian Ocean
By Daniel J. Kostecka

Assessing the PLA's Promotion Ladder to CMC Member Based on Grades vs. Ranks – Part 1
By Kenneth W. Allen

China Building Africa's Economic Infrastructure: SEZs and Railroads
By Loro Horta

Chinese Analyses of Soviet Failure: The Dictatorship of the Proletariat
By Arthur Waldron

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In a Fortnight

CHINA'S CYBER COMMAND?
By L.C. Russell Hsiao

The development of China's cyber warfare program has captured worldwide attention in recent years. While evolving doctrines and incidents of cyber intrusions with alleged links to the Chinese government have helped China watchers glean the development of China's growing cyber warfare capabilities, far less certainty surrounds the command and control side of this enigmatic operation. This is partly because key tasks of China's computer network operations and information warfare had been, until recently, decentralized in different departments in the People's Liberation Army (PLA) General Staff Headquarters (i.e. the Third and Fourth Departments) and specialized bureaus located in the different military regions.

READ FULL STORY

***

The Chinese Navy's Emerging Support Network in the Indian Ocean
By Daniel J. Kostecka

The ongoing debate in China over whether or not to formalize logistical support agreements for Chinese naval forces in the Indian Ocean is a natural outgrowth of the People's Liberation Army Navy's (PLAN) expanding presence in the region. As China continues to maintain a task group of warships off the Horn of Africa to conduct counter-piracy patrols, it is cultivating the commercial and diplomatic ties necessary to sustain its forces along these strategic sea-lanes. While Chinese government officials and academics debate the underlying issues, a supply network of "places" is quietly taking shape [1]. Regardless of whether or not the PLAN develops its support network through a series of formal agreements that guarantee access, or continues to supply its forces as it has been, that network is developing and will in all likelihood continue to grow in the foreseeable future.

READ FULL STORY

***

Assessing the PLA's Promotion Ladder to CMC Member Based on Grades vs. Ranks – Part 1
By Kenneth W. Allen

As China approaches the 18th Party Congress in late 2012, followed by the 12th National People's Congress (NPC) in early 2013, China watchers have begun to speculate about the next cadre of Chinese military leaders who will become members and vice chairmen of the Communist Party's Central Military Commission (CMC) [1]. The premise of these analyses tend to focus on which officers either already have or might receive their third star (shangjiang) as a general or admiral between now and 2012. Unlike the U.S. military, whose generals and admirals wear four stars, PLA generals and admirals wear only three stars. While military rank is an important distinction in the People's Liberation Army (PLA) hierarchy, a closer examination of the promotion path to becoming a CMC member reveals that it depends more on the PLA's 15-grade (zhiwu dengji) structure than its 10-rank (junxian) structure [2].

READ FULL STORY

***

China Building Africa's Economic Infrastructure: SEZs and Railroads
By Loro Horta

Starting in the late 1990s, China's presence on the African continent experienced a phenomenal expansion. Far more profound changes, however, have been underway and may only become apparent in the next decade. These changes are likely to transform the regional economic landscape of the African continent in ways never seen before. Chinese experts apparently believe that Africa is entering an era of relative stability and that the time to explore its untapped resources has arrived [1]. Chinese policymakers see in Africa possible solutions to some of China's most pressing problems, for instance, Beijing's need to secure access to energy resources and other vital minerals to sustain the country's rapid economic growth. Yet Chinese interests in Africa extend beyond energy resources and minerals and clearly include markets, infrastructure development and agriculture. China's operations in Africa are becoming more diversified and multi-dimensional, and the Chinese government as well as private entrepreneurs has seemingly realized the need to look at large regions of Africa in an integrated fashion to maximize the benefits of its growing investments. This new approach has resulted in an ambitious plan, which was announced at the 2006 Forum on China and Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) meeting, to establish five special economic zones (SEZs) in Africa to attract Chinese investment and integrate China's comprehensive economic activities throughout the continent. In spite of the recent global economic downturn, this program appears to be gaining momentum.

READ FULL STORY

***

Chinese Analyses of Soviet Failure: The Dictatorship of the Proletariat
By Arthur Waldron

The centrality of the seemingly abstruse concept of the dictatorship of the proletariat to ongoing ideological debates in China was spotlighted recently in a wide ranging interview given by the 105 year old senior communist stalwart Zhou Youguang (1906-), best known for his invention of the system of Chinese-English transliteration known as hanyu pinyin. Reminiscing about what brought him to support the communists against the nationalists (Kuomintang), the linguist hearkened back to regular talks he and other intellectuals held in Chongqing during wartime with the future Prime Minister Zhou Enlai (1898-1976). In these discussions, Zhou assured his listeners authoritatively and convincingly that the communists would implement a democratic regime, far freer than that of Chiang Kai-shek (1887-1975) [1]. Mao Zedong (1893-1976) made a similar assurance in 1945, as the Chinese civil war was ending, telling a Reuters correspondent that "a free, democratic China would … realize the 'of the people, by the people, and for the people' concept of Abraham Lincoln and the 'four freedoms' proposed by Franklin Roosevelt" [2].

READ FULL STORY

***

China Brief is a publication of the Jamestown Foundation and is edited by Mr. L.C. Russell Hsiao. The opinions expressed in it are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent those of the Jamestown Foundation. If you have any questions regarding the China Brief, please contact pubs@jamestown.org. Unauthorized reproduction or redistribution of China Brief is strictly prohibited by law.

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