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Sunday, August 30, 2009

India scoring own goals against Pakistan

Vikram Sood

Vikram Sood was a career intelligence officer who retired in March 2003 after heading India's external intelligence service, the Research and Analysis Wing.
Pakistan Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani must have gone home chuckling, for never in his wildest imagination would he have assumed that the Indians would score so many own goals in less than an hour especially after the drubbing his President Asif Ali Zardari received at Yekaterinburg, barely two months ago. The score at the end of play was Pakistan four, India zero. This sudden loss of form remains inexplicable and has bewildered and angered many. Some have attributed this to American coaching. The Pakistani commentator Ayesha Siddiqa rubbed salt into our wounds, when she said that "This is an Indian government which is under the influence of the United States."

The four goals came in rapid succession. These were:

"Both leaders agreed that the two countries will share real time, credible and actionable information on any future terrorist threats." Now it is a basic and essential truth of life that we share secrets with those we trust or with those where we have an identifiable common interest or target. Do India and Pakistan have this? There is a clear divergence between pious hopes and attainable goals.

"Prime Minister Gilani mentioned that Pakistan has some information on threats in Balochistan and other areas". The incongruity and irrelevance of these 16 words jars. Pakistan has been blaming the rest of the world, chiefly India and now its benefactor and protector, the US, for its current troubles. It conveniently ignores the fact that its present problems emanate from the Taliban and the Lashkar-e-Tayiba ,both of which creations of its own malevolence. Pakistan is today paying the price of fighting a two-front jihadi war. Besides, the implication of the words "and other areas" is particularly sinister. Already there are wild accusations of Indian involvement in the terrorist attack on the Lahore Police Academy and on the Sri Lankan cricketers. More terrorist attacks by the Taliban or whoever wants to do this will surely take place in Pakistan. We can be certain that the evil Indian hand will be seen in this. And what if there is an attack on an American facility by the Pakistani Taliban and the orchestrated allegations are that there is an Indian hand?

In Havana, we had raised Pakistan to our level by describing it as a victim of terrorism. In Sharm el-Sheikh, we downgraded ourselves to their level by allowing them to describe us as sponsors of terrorism.

"Both prime ministers recognised that dialogue is the only way forward. Action on terrorism should not be linked to the Composite Dialogue process and these should not be bracketed. Prime Minister (Manmohan) Singh said that India was ready to discuss all issues with Pakistan, including all outstanding issues." The eagerness to resume the Composite Dialogue is mystifying if we at the same time insist that Pakistan must give us satisfaction on the issue of terrorism. Clearly the two -- Composite Dialogue and terrorism will now operate in separate, unconnected silos. What is the leverage that we will have on Pakistan if we are not even going to insist that we be given reasonable comfort before we resume dialogue? Ironically, and after years of hard fought battles with Washington, we now hear voices that suggest that they too have begun to understand and acknowledge the root cause of the problem. There is an increasing acceptance that the war on terror cannot be disaggregated and fought selectively. Admiral Mike Mullen ,chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, spoke about the need for Pakistan to control terrorism both on the eastern front and the western front. Just when this is beginning to happen, we have wilted.

"Prime Minister Singh reiterated India's interest in a stable, democratic, Islamic Republic of Pakistan". Now why on earth do we have to say this? In the past also we have had our leaders signing at the Minar-e-Pakistan while the Pakistanis mounted assaults on Kargil , we rush off to Karachi and want to certify Mohammad Ali Jinnah's secular credentials and now this. Has Pakistan ever expressed that it wishes to see a democratic secular Republic of India? At least they are honest about this one because no Pakistani leader can afford to say this and get away as this expression undermines the very basis of the two-nation theory that the leaders still cling to in search of an identity that is non-India. For 60 years Pakistan's leaders have been trying to undermine India through the jihadis. It has not worked but it has not been given up either.

S Akbar Zaidi, a Karachi based analyst, was right when he said that India had to acknowledge that Pakistan, the intelligence establishment and groups like the LeT were not going away. In this triangle, Pakistan cannot survive without the other two, the Lashkar survives because of the other two and the intelligence rules over both. In other words, so long as there is Pakistan there will be the LeT backed by the Inter Services Intelligence backed by the army. Zaidi also added that the Pakistani establishment would not pursue cases against the Lashkar operatives involved in the Mumbai attacks and feared that there could be another Kargil or a Mumbai.
In dealing with Pakistan we must accept that its policy on jihad can no longer change. It has pursued this policy for far too long and the belief apparently is that the only way to get out of this mess is to get deeper into it. In the process it is also a state that is increasingly obscurantist with an acknowledged reputation that the country is now ground zero for global jihad. A terribly frightened and miniscule moderate section stands by, unable to stand up to the jihadis' interpretation of Islam.

All this has been said in these columns before but two important writings in recent months would testify to this. One is Arif Jamal's book Shadow War: The Untold Story of Jihad in Kashmir . Jamal's book confirms that Mumbai 2008 was a continuation of Baramulla 1947. The other is an essay by John R Schmidt in the Survival journal entitled The Unravelling of Pakistan which is one of the most honest and sombre accounts of what is happening in Pakistan today and the dangers ahead that threaten the existence of Pakistan with the Taliban now sitting west of the Indus and threatening both Punjab and Balochistan. Since one author is a Pakistani journalist and analyst and the other a former member of the US Foreign Service their views cannot be attributed to Indian prejudice.

What we need to understand is that when Pakistan feels cornered its leaders will seek assistance and sympathy and export mangoes; their purpose served, they will revert to form and export jihadis. The way to handle Pakistan is not through kind gestures and misplaced magnanimity; these are taken as signs of weakness and generally used to bargain for more.

The Pakistani establishment has made full use of its feeling of indispensability to the NATO effort in Afghanistan through provision of intelligence and logistics. As the US has begun to realise coddling Pakistan is counter-productive it needs to disabuse Pakistan of this and explore the routes through Iran and Russia . For this naturally it must stop needling both these countries; if India is required to give comfort to Pakistan to allow it to assist the US effort why not the US give some comfort to both Iran and Russia to enable them to help the US in Afghanistan. Indian presence in Afghanistan is benevolent and it would be unfortunate if this is reduced as this is the one country that has rendered assistance to the Afghan people. Pakistan does not have to be given comfort on this issue. Carrots must reduce and sticks must increase.
Pakistan has to be reinvented before it morphs into something very frightening.

B Raman on Pakistani Taliban after Baitullah Mahsud

Pakistani Taliban-A Brilliant Analysis by B Raman












B Raman on Pakistani Taliban after Baitullah Mahsud

B. Raman

Baitullah Mehsud, the dreaded chief of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), is no more. On August 23, 2009, he succumbed to injuries sustained by him in the US Drone strike on the house of his father-in-law Ikramullah in South Waziristan on August 5, 2009. Hakimullah Mehsud, who was till now one of the deputy chiefs---- the other being Waliur Rehman Mehsud---- and in charge of operations in the Orakzai, Kurram and Khyber Agencies, is the new Amir as decided unanimously by the TTP Shura at a meeting in the Orakzai Agency last week.

2. This was reportedly stated on August 24, 2009, by Hakimullah and Waliur Rehman in calls made to some sections of the media independently of each other. They have thus sought to put an end to rumours floated by Rehman Malik, Pakistan's Interior Minister, about a fierce succession struggle in which, according to him, Hakimullah was killed and Waliur was injured.

3. If the earlier US and Pakistani claims that Baitullah was killed instantaneously on August 5 after the Drone strike is correct----there is no reason to believe otherwise---- it is intriguing that the TTP took 19 days to admit his death at the hands of the US and even then attributed his death to injuries and projected it as not instantaneous. These 19 days were probably taken to decide on the successor and to identify those who had allegedly betrayed Baitullah to the Americans---either directly or through Pakistan. This long time shows that the Shura, which met in Orakzai and not in South Waziristan as claimed by Rehman Malik, needed time to sort out differences.

4. Waliur Rehman is a Mehsud of the soil. He had spent his years as a jihadi in South Waziristan, where the native place of the Mehsuds is located, and became a trusted confidante of Baitullah, his cousin. He was the man who controlled the coffers of Baitullah, who trusted him with money and wanted him to succeed him so that he would continue to have the control over the money.

5. Though Hakimullah was born in South Waziristan, grew up and had been known for his legendary exploits against the Pakistan Army there, he did not enjoy the confidence of Baitullah to the same extent as Waliur Rehman. Baitullah did not trust him with money and sent him away to Orakzai to co-ordinate operations in that Agency as well as in the Khyber and Kurram Agencies. Of the many tasks which Hakimullah performed, three need special mention: first, disruption of logistic supplies to the NATO troops in Afghanistan from the Karachi port; second, the organisation of suicide strikes in the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) and the non-tribal areas of Pakistan with the help of suicide volunteers trained by his cousin Qari Hussain Mehsud; and third, operations against the Shia extremist Sipah Mohammad members headed by Hussain Ali Shah in the Kurram Agency.

6. Many successful attacks on NATO convoys in the Khyber Agency gave Hakimullah large quantities of arms and ammunition and other equipment. He shared some of these with Baitullah for use in South Waziristan, but kept a large quantity for his own use. He also captured large quantities of arms and ammunition during attacks on posts and convoys of the Frontier Constabulary and other Pakistani para-military units. Thus, after Baitullah, while Waliur Rehman will control the coffers of the TTP, Hakimullah will control its weapon holdings and its reserve of trained suicide volunteers. In terms of men, the "Daily Times" of Lahore (August 24, 2009) had estimated the total number of trained and armed followers under the command of Hakimullah in the Orakzai-Khyber-Khurram areas as 8000 as against 30,000 under the command of Baitullah in South Waziristan at the time of Baitullah's death. These 30,000 armed men in South Waziristan are now expected to be loyal to Waliur Rehman.

7. Thus the Mehsud component of the TTP, which has been the most dominant till now and which has been in the forefront of the operations against the Pakistani security forces, will now have about 30,000 trained and armed men owing primary loyalty to Waliur Rehman and another 8,000 armed men plus an unquantifiable number of suicide volunteers owing primary loyalty to Hakimullah. Waliur Rehman will have to depend on Hakimullah for weapon replenishments and suicide volunteers and Hakimullah will have to depend on Waliur Rehman for funds replenishments.

8. For the present, the two have chosen to project a picture of unity and solidarity to all the units of the TTP---Mehsuds as well as non-Mehsuds. Whether this will last remains to be seen. Ever since the TTP made its appearance in 2007 after the Lal Masjid raid in Islamabad in July of that year, the Mehsuds under Baitullah have been its driving force. This will continue at least in the short term. An interesting feature of the post-9/11 scene in the Af-Pak area has been that whereas there were splits in the Pakistani Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HUM) with one group under Maulana Masood Azhar forming the Jaish-e-Mohammad in 2000, the Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JUD), with a group owing loyalty to Zafar Iqbal and Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi forming a separate organisation in 2004 which called itself the Kairun Naas (Welfare of the Masses) and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) with some elements coming out of it and forming the Islamic Jihad Union (IJU), Al Qaeda, the Afghan Neo Taliban under Mulla Mohammad Omar, the TTP, the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI),the anti-Shia Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LEJ) and the Islamic Movement of Eastern Turkestan (IMET) have maintained their unity in the face of pressure from the US. One should not, therefore, be surprised if the TTP maintains its unity even after the death of Baitullah.

9. While organisationally remaining intact, the Mehsud component of the TTP has been suffering attrition in the form of individual elements letting themselves be tempted by American offers of huge rewards for betraying their leaders. It is such individual elements which have been behind the impressive success rate of the US Drones in South Waziristan. Gnawing suspicions over US moles in their midst will impose an increasing strain on this unity. There are already reports of the TTP detaining Ikramullah, the father-in-law of Baitullah, and some membes of the family, who allegedly absented themselves from the house when it was attacked by the Drones on August 5.

10. Of the Punjabi terrorist organisations, three have been closely collaborating with the TTP components---- the JEM has been collaborating with the Tehrik-e-Nifaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (TNSM) headed by Fazlullah in the Swat Valley of the NWFP, the HUJI headed by Qari Saifullah Akhtar was collaborating with Baitullah's men in South Waziristan and the anti-Shia LEJ with Hakimullah in Kurram, Khyber and Orakzai. While the collaboration of the JEM and the LEJ remains intact, there is a question mark over the HUJI. According to reliable police sources, the TTP now suspects that he was another mole of either the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) or the CIA or both and it was to protect him that the Pakistani authorities have again taken him into custody.

11. After the success of their hunt for Baitullah in co-ordination with the ISI and the Pakistan Army, the Americans have started a similar hunt for Serajuddin Haqqani, the son of Jalaluddin Haqqani. The Drones have started going after places, which were in the past known to be among his hide-outs. Surprisngly, almost the entire focus of the US covert operations, of which the Drone strikes are an important component, were initially against the TTP and now against the Afghan Taliban.When the Drone strikes initially started under former President George Bush the focus of their hunt was on Osama bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahiri and other Al Qaeda leaders. After a number of unsuccessful strikes against suspected Al Qaeda hide-outs due to incorrect human intelligence, the focus has now shifted to the two Talibans. While the flow of correct human intelligence has been good in respect of the TTP, it is still poor in respect of the Afghan Taliban.

12. It remains to be seen whether Hakimullah as the new Amir will choose to co-ordinate the operations of the TTP from Orakzai or will shift to South Waziristan.Most probably, he will remain in Orakzai because of the suspected CIA penetratiion of the Mehsuds in South Waziristan. He will focus on identifying all the moles and getting them eliminated, continuing to disrupt NATO convoys, stepping up attacks on Shias in co-ordination with the LEJ and targeting the leaders of the Awami National Party (ANP) in the NWFP. The ANP is his sworn enemy.

13. Will there be an act of retaliation to avenge the death of Baitullah? If so, will it be directed against the Americans or the Pakistani Army and the ISI? If against the Americans, will it be in Pakistan itself or outside? These are important questions, but it is difficult to answer them now.

Saturday, August 29, 2009

My Friend Ravi Rikhyes Assessment of US Strategy in Afghanistan

I have known Ravi Rikjye since 2000.A brilliant military writer it was an honour to be a member of his www.orbat.com.He is a part of our Indo Pak Wars Blog here too.

Agha Amin


My Friend Ravi Rikhyes Assessment of US Strategy in Afghanistan

by

www.orbat.com


Rumor says US commanders to ask for extra 5 Afghan brigades Our only advice is: rescind the request and redefine the missions to protecting the five main cities and during daylight hours the routes in between.

America is turning against the Afghan war; ironically this is because the military has told the truth, that the war is going very badly and we could lose. This is not what the public wants to hear as we close up on the end of 8 years in Afghanistan. And they especially don't want to hear rationalizations about why this has happened.

Other factors are in play. Americans are upset about the Afghan election, and it really is no use to tell them, look, a democracy takes decades to build, particularly when the state is so backward. This election was far from perfect, but it was also far better than no election at all, but when people are tired of a war, it doesn't matter what you say.

Perfect example is Vietnam, where the US had actually managed to create a reasonably functional and reasonably secure state. That is why the North Vietnamese had to openly invade in 1972 and 1975, they would have lost for good had they waited. But Americans were so fed up, the US Congress wouldn't even sanction ~$5-billion in war material (in today's money) for the South Vietnam forces, and it wouldn't let the US use just its airpower. (US ground troops had been withdrawn by the time the final offensive came.)

If US commanders insist on another five brigades on top of already sanctioned reinforcements and existing forces, we are going to be almost at the level of Iraq pre-surge. Americans do not want the US withdrawing from Iraq simply to get involved in another war of the same magnitude potentially lasting many more years than Second Iraq.

US government, military, and elite have to understand that American war weariness has reached the point that making sophisticated arguments will actually turn people off. what do we mean sophisticated argument? Here's one: Afghanistan has more people and its communication network is far more primitive than Iraq's, so we need more troops.

Absolutely true. But the argument completely begs the point: what was US doing in Afghanistan for 8 years? Why weren't the Afghan forces built up quicker? And please don't give sophisticated answers to that question, because it will be sophistry: no one, but no one, requires 8 years to build up an army that can produce less than half-a-dozen brigades for combat.

US government etc has acted like it had 30 years to do the job in Afghanistan, that they could proceed at leisure and in as ham-handed a fashion as possible, and American people would not give a little peep.

Mr. Bush managed to befuddle the American public for years, so that the masses were not asking what the heck was happening in Iraq and why. But with Mr. Bush gone, the people are no longer held in thrall, and they are stepping blinking hard into the bright sunshine and starting to ask awkward questions for which US government has no answers.

For example: why are we fighting in Afghanistan to give the people human rights when the government helps Afghan men suppress the rights of women?

The American government and military have gotten spoiled and fat on endlessly expanding budgets coupled with no questions asked by Congress. They have NOT done a good job in Afghanistan; indeed, in Editor's estimation, they have done a thoroughly bad job. Ditto Iraq, which thanks to the incredible hard work of the field people and a lot of luck, came out well enough in the end that we can disengage.

But does the US government/military really think the people will agree if tomorrow you tell them: we have to send 10 brigades back to Iraq? Next election, Americans will throw their elected representatives out.

So, to get back to out advice. Redefine Afghanistan solely as mission to provide training and security for the five major cities. Do not, even once, talk of America defeating the Taliban. Talk about how the Afghans will defeat the Taliban. Set a hard deadline: forget this nonsense of "we don't set deadlines because that plays into enemy hands". In real life no one would get the simplest jobs done if no deadlines existed. even in such a black-white situation as World War 2, can you imagine what would have happened if the war had gone on 8 years and the US government said: "We are losing and it will decades to prevail and even then there are no guarantees?" Deadlines also force Afghanis to get their act together or face the consequences.

If at deadline the Afghans have their act together, declare victory and rejoice. if they haven't, say "we gave it out best shot, it isn't our job to care more Afghanistan than its people, and we're out."

Friday, August 28, 2009

How men change-Things dont change but we change

How men change-Things dont change but we change





in 1993 musharraf was not an arrogant man but after 1996 he changed . the typical conversion from being genuine to being a shameless opportunist.such is history and the sad end of many who appeared very promising initially.

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

IRANS FAILED WAR AGAINST NARCOTICS

IRANS FAILED WAR AGAINST NARCOTICS

ALL PLOTTINGS BY A.H AMIN BASED ON RESEARCH FROM 1979 TILL TO DATE


ONGOING WAR IN BALOCHISTAN



WITH THE PAKISTANI STATE NOW PITCHED AGAINST THE BALOCH AND REAL PASHTUNS (FATA) THE CHANCES OF THEIR WINNING THE WAR ARE DIM.UNLESS THE PAKISTANI STATES EXERCISES JUSTICE AND FAIRPLAY ?

ITS GOOD LUCK OF PAKISTAN THAT THE AMERICANS HAVE NEAR ZERO IQ AND THE INDIANS ARE AS HOPELESS AND AS MEDIOCREA AS THE PAKISTANIS !

HA HA HA

AGHA

MOST MISERABLE MILITARY FAILURE OF USA

MOST MISERABLE MILITARY FAILURE OF USA


failure to interdict the money and logistic supplyline of all anti US forces in Afghanistan and Pakistan is the most miserable failure of USA.

the main reason is lack of the burning desire to destroy the enemy.the US officials are basically middle class boys making a good living.for them being in afghanistan is for getting a better pay cheque.who wins or who loses is not their concern !

HA HA HA

Agha Amin



Pakistani ISI General admits ISI rigged 2002 elections

The man, who rigged 2002 polls, spills the beans




Sunday, February 24, 2008

By Umar Cheema

THE NEWS

http://www.thenews.com.pk/top_story_detail.asp?Id=13159

ISLAMABAD: The main wheeler and dealer of the ISI during the 2002 elections, the then Maj-Gen Ehtesham Zamir, now retired, has come out of the closet and admitted his guilt of manipulating the 2002 elections, and has directly blamed Gen Musharraf for ordering so.

Talking to The News, the head of the ISI’s political cell in 2002, admitted manipulating the last elections at the behest of President Musharraf and termed the defeat of the King’s party, the PML-Q, this time “a reaction of the unnatural dispensation (installed in 2002).”

Zamir said the ISI together with the NAB was instrumental in pressing the lawmakers to join the pro-Musharraf camp to form the government to support his stay in power.

Looking down back into the memory lane and recalling his blunders which, he admitted, had pushed the country back instead of taking it forward, Zamir feels ashamed of his role and conduct.

Massively embarrassed because he was the one who negotiated, coerced and did all the dirty work, the retired Maj-Gen said he was not in a position to become a preacher now when his own past was tainted.

He said the country would not have faced such regression had the political management was not carried out by the ISI in 2002. But he also put some responsibility of the political disaster on the PML-Q as well.

The former No: 2 of the ISI called for the closure of political cell in the agency, confessing that it was part of the problem due to its involvement in forging unnatural alliances, contrary to public wishes.

Zamir’s blaming Musharraf for creating this unnatural alliance rings true as another former top associate of Musharraf, Lt-Gen (retd) Jamshed Gulzar Kiyani has already disclosed that majority of the corps commanders, in several meetings, had opposed Musharraf’s decision of patronising the leadership of the King’s party.

“We had urged Musharraf many times during the corps commanders meeting that the PML-Q leadership was the most condemned and castigated personalities. They are the worst politicians who remained involved in co-operative scandals and writing off loans. But Musharraf never heard our advice,” Kiyani said while recalling discussions in their high profile meetings.

He said one of their colleagues, who was an accountability chief at that time, had sought permission many times for proceeding against the King’s party top leaders but was always denied.

Kiyani asked Musharraf to quit, the sooner the better, as otherwise the country would be in a serious trouble.

Ma-Gen (retd) Ehtesham Zamir termed the 2008 elections ‘fairer than 2002’. He said the reason behind their fairness is that there was relatively less interference of intelligence agencies this time as compared to the last time. But he stopped short of saying that there was zero interference in the 2008 polls.

“You are quite right,” he said when asked to confirm about heavy penetration of ISI into political affairs during the 2002 elections. But he said he did not do it on his own but on the directives issued by the government.

Asked who directed him from the government side and if there was somebody else, not President Musharraf, he said: “Obviously on the directives of President Musharraf.”

Asked if he then never felt that he was committing a crime by manipulating political business at the cost of public wishes, he said: “Who should I have told except myself. Could I have asked Musharraf about this? I was a serving officer and I did what I was told to do. I never felt this need during the service to question anyone senior to me,” he said and added that he could not defend his acts now.

“It was for this reason that I have never tried to preach others what I did not practice. But I am of the view that the ISI’s political cell should be closed for good by revoking executive orders issued in 1975,” he said.

Responding to a question regarding corruption cases that were used as pressure tactics on lawmakers, he said: “Yes! This tool was used, not only by the ISI. The NAB was also involved in this exercise.”

Former corps commander of Rawalpindi, Lt-Gen (retd) Jamshed Gulzar Kiyani said majority of corps commanders had continued opposing Musharraf’s alliance with top leadership of the PML-Q.

“Not just in one meeting, we opposed his alignment with these corrupt politicians in many meetings but who cared. Now Musharraf has been disgraced everywhere, thanks to his political cronies.”

Friday, August 7, 2009

FSB IN LEBANON

August 7, 2009

FSB Involvement in Lebanon?
Bruce Chapman
The pro-Israeli Debka file is reporting the disturbing assertion that the Russian intelligence agency, FSB, was instrumental in rolling up an Israeli spy ring within the Hezbollah-controlled regions of Lebanon.

If the Debka story is not true, Moscow should shed some light on the claims. Hezbollah is a terrorist group that is consistently at odds with the more peaceable elements in Lebanon. Syria is supportive of Hezbollah and Russia may be eager to retain ties with the Assad regime. But to this extent?

Here is the Debka report in full:

Russian secret service helped Hizballah bust Israel's Lebanese spy rings
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
August 5, 2009, 10:16 PM (GMT+02:00)


Russian FSB agent in action
Western intelligence sources in the Middle East have disclosed to DEBKAfile that a special unit of the Russian Federal Security Service - FSB, commissioned by Hizballah's special security apparatus earlier this year, was responsible for the massive discovery of alleged Israel spy rings in Lebanon in recent months with the help of super-efficient detection systems.
Those sources report that the FSB and Hizballah have amassed quantities of undisclosed data on Israel's clandestine operations in Lebanon and are holding it in reserve in order to leak spectaculars discoveries as and when it suits their purpose.
This disclosure, if borne out, would indicate that the Russian agency, which specializes in counterespionage, is engaged for the first time in anti-Israel activity in the service of an Arab terrorist organization. An Israeli security sources describes this turn of events extremely grave. It also cast an ominous slant on Moscow's deepening strategic involvement in Syria.
It was generally assumed until now that new electronic devices supplied by France to the Lebanese army were instrumental in uncovering the suspected Israeli spy rings. It now transpires that the Lebanese army was not directly involved; it only detained the suspects handed over by the Shiite Hizballah.
Those same sources disclosed that FSB agents, by blanketing every corner of Lebanon with their sophisticated surveillance systems, were able to detect the spy rings one by one and additionally hack into Israeli intelligence data bases.
The Russians dated Israel's massive clandestine infiltration of Lebanon to shortly after its 2006 Lebanese conflict. The Lebanese Shiites sustained heavy casualties and, fearing an Israeli surprise attack at that point, began conscripting thousands of young Shiites as fighters pell mell, without checking their backgrounds. In their haste, they also rounded up Syrian and Egyptian migrant laborers in Lebanon.
Israel used the opportunity to recruit large numbers of agents in both these groups, especially among the conscripts sent to Revolutionary Guards camps in Iran and Syrian military facilities for training.

Monday, August 3, 2009

54 VOLUME LIST OF US AGENTS

pakistani officer brigadier tirmizi who was defence attache in tehran and read these documents states that the documents stated that many senior pakistani officials including the foreign minister ,custodian of pakistani war plans the DGMO afzaal all were paid US agents.
if this was the status then today it must be far worst.so God help Pakistan.

Agha
refers

Profiles in Intelligence
Brig Tirmizi

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Secrets of the Teheren ArchiveORBISSpring 1987by Edward Jay Epstein -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The heart of the intelligence business is the an illegal enterprise: the surreptitious theft of state secrets from other nations. The surreptitious part of the equation is crucial since it provides unexpected knowledge. This endeavor also requires air-tight secrecy because the usefulness of the intelligence derived from this data depends on the other side not realizing that it is missing or compromised. Once an adversary realizes that a particular secret is known, it can take effective action to diminish its value. For example, if a nation finds out that one of its diplomatic codes has been broken, it can either change the code or use it as a channel to transmit messages it wants its adversary to read.To maintain their flow of unexpected secrets, intelligence service have a double job. First, they must steal secrets of value, which is the easy part. Second, they must conceal all traces of the theft for as long as they want the information to remain valuable. To meet this latter requisite, espionage agents are instructed to photocopy documents in place rather than tampering with them or removing them ; and, in situations where this is not possible, intelligence services employ technical staffs of experts to obliterate any clues that the documents gave been tampered with, or temporarily removed to be copied. The security problem does not end, however, with hiding the original theft. Intelligence services must protect the secret that they have stolen valuable information, such as a code, even after it is put to use-- so it can be of future use. This final task of intelligence often requires the creation of a set of alternative false, through plausible sources, to prevent the adversary from figuring out from the use of the intelligence what--or who-- could possibly have compromised or supplied it. The protection of sources and methods involves not only keeping a secret but also fabricating "red herrings" to divert, confuse and overload enemy investigations with extraneous and false information. When British intelligence learned of German military operations in the second world war through its intercepts of coded signals, it protected the secret by creating fictional human agents who could be plausibly assigned the credit for the coup. In the same manner, human sources are often hidden by behind a screen of fictional scientific devices.This necessary practice of intelligence services protecting truths with bodyguards of lies or red herrings has also resulted in the systematic pollution of public knowledge about espionage through deliberately-planted fictions. Intelligence services employ entire covert actions staffs to muddy the waters around important cases by leaking selected bits of information. For example, the "story" of Oleg Penkovskiy, a Soviet GRU officer in contact with British intelligence in the mid 1950s and then again in the early 1960s, has been put out in different versions by three intelligence services-- the CIA, the KGB and the British. The CIA indeed fabricated a diary for him which became a best-selling book in the United States. Although both CIA and British counterintelligence had grave suspicions about the information Penkovskiy supplied, especially during his latter career, the CIA's public version gave him credit for events to which he had no connection. While such sprinklings of untruths into the historic record may be justifiable from the point of view of protecting sources and methods, and therefore vital to the integrity of the intelligence organization, the distortions that they produce may it virtually impossible for outsiders to understand the intelligence business (which may not be entirely unintentional). Indeed, even in the United States, except for the rare glimpses provided by Congressional hearings, such as those of the Church Committee, the public perception of the secret world of intelligence has always been closely controlled by the intelligence services themselves either through contract employees who write books they submit for review or defectors, under contract to the CIA, FBI or DIA, who, after being briefed, contact journalists or Congressional staffs.This was the situation up until November 1979 when Iranian students seized an entire archive of CIA and State Department documents, which represented one of the most extensive losses of secret data in the history of any modern intelligence service. Even though many of these documents were shredded into thin strips before the Embassy, and CIA base, was surrendered, the Iranians managed to piece them back together. They were then published in 1982 in 54 volumes under the title "Documents From the U.S. Espionage Den", and are sold in the United States for $246.50. As the Teheran Embassy evidently served as a regional base for the CIA, The scope of this captures intelligence goes well beyond intelligence reports on Iran alone. They cover the Soviet Union, Turkey, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq. There are also secret analysis of arcane subjects ranging from the effectiveness of Israeli intelligence to Soviet oil production. Presumably, these thousands of documents, which include cryptnyms and routing instructions from and to concerned agencies of the United States government, have been extensively analyzed by the KGB and other intelligence service interested in the sources and methods used by the CIA.The most revealing documents are the CIA's own internal directives that span a twenty year period. When these are read in chronological order, they trace a remarkable conceptual changes in the way the CIA conceived of its job-- and enemy. It indeed casts an entirely new light on the bitter battles that tore the CIA apart in the mid-1970s, and it explains some of its more recent failures to properly evaluate intelligence defectors.The watershed year was 1973-- just after the retirement of Richard Helms. That year there was an 180 degree switch in the crucial policy concerning the recruitment of Soviet Bloc officials, called appropriately RED TOPS. At issue, was the way that these RED TOPS, primarily Communist diplomats, intelligence officers, or military attaches stationed abroad, were to be treated if they "walked in", and surreptitiously approached American officials and offered either to defect or to remain in place and supply U.S. intelligence with Soviet secrets. Would they assumed to be sincere defectors, and enrolled in American espionage? Or would they be suspected of being KGB disinformation agents, and held in limbo? This conceptual determination is central to the spy business. Up until 1973, the CIA had assumed that Soviet intelligence services commonly used "provocations" as a technique to test and manipulating its opponents in the intelligence game. As bait in these provocations, the KGB would order Soviet embassy officials to make contact with U.S. officials and feign disloyalty. In fact, over the years, the CIA had found that a large number of RED TOP officials who contacted the CIA, ostensibly to defect, turned out to be under the control of the KGB; and used to confuse American intelligence with disinformation, lead it on a wild goose chase, expose its sources or methods, or simply embarrass it by contriving an incident. As early as 1959, to guard against KGB-controlled provocateurs, the CIA had insisted that the bona fides of a RED TOP walk-in be established through a counterintelligence investigation before he is treated as a source of intelligence. This procedure was explicitly defined in "Director of Central Intelligence Directive 4/2", signed by Allan Dulles. It states:The establishment of bona fides of disaffected persons will be given particular attention because of the demonstrated use of defector channels by hostile services to penetrate or convey false or deceptive information to U.S. Intelligence services. (Volume 53, p.8)The responsibility for making this determination of "bona fides" had been assigned to the chief of the counterintelligence staff, James Angleton, and it obviously gave him great power over the recruitment of REDTOPS. It also led to considerable rivalries within the CIA, and especially with the Soviet Russia Division, which wanted to control its own recruitments among Soviet officials.In 1973, William E. Colby, the son of a Jesuit missionary, whose main experience in the CIA had been in paramilitary and political activities, became first the comptroller, then Director, of Central Intelligence. It was the beginning of a revolution. As he explains in his autobiography, he rejected the complicated view of KGB strategic deception. Instead of worry about such enemy tricks, he saw the job of the CIA as a straight forward one of gathering intelligence for the President. And, to accomplish this, he believed "walk in" defectors should be encouraged and given the benefit of the doubt, rather than suspected. He complained that in the past the CIA "spent an inordinate amount of time worried about false defectors and false agents." What now emerges from the Teheran archive was how far Colby went in abruptly revising this doctrine on REDTOPS. A top secret order, entitled "Turning Around REDTOP walk ins", which went out to all CIA stations in 1973, advised:Analysis of REDTOP walk-ins in recent years clearly indicates that REDTOP services have not been seriously using sophisticated and serious walk-ins as a provocation technique. However, fear of provocations has been more responsible for bad handling than any other cause. We have concluded that we do ourselves a disservice if we shy away from promising cases because of fear of provocation...We are confident that we are capable of determining whether or not a producing agent is supplying bona fide information. ( Volume 53, p.32)Instead of holding in abeyance REDTOPS until their bona fides could be established, this new doctrine gave case officers in the Soviet Bloc Divisions carte blanc to recruit "producing agents" on the assumption that their worth would be established after the fact by the quantity and quality of information they furnished. This new order changed the entire philosophy of the CIA in a single swoop. By effectively eliminating the prior task of establishing bona fides, it undermined Angleton's position in the CIA, and made superfluous his counterintelligence staff. In light of this change, it is not surprising that Angleton, after bitterly fighting this new policy, which contradicted the empirical findings of the past 20 years, was forced out. Although Angleton was fired in December 1974, after Colby first planted a Pulitzer Prize news leak with the NY Times, the full dimensions of this power struggle only became known through the documents in the Teheran archive. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- These top secret internal directives also reveal that in 1973 there was a sudden increase in the CIA's confidence in its ability to run and service agents in hostile territory. Up until 1973, the CIA considered such contacts behind enemy lines to be a very difficult--and dangerous--enterprise. Not only did the KGB maintain a full-court press of surveillance, especially around the embassy, but it was known to use double-agents to entrap intermediaries that might be used as couriers. In January 1973, there was a dramatic change in the CIA's appreciation of this situation. On January 9th, in a top secret cable, The CIA`s Soviet Bloc division, code named BK Herald, informed all stations abroad:BK Herald can and does run many resident agents inside the REDTOP countries. We have the capability to mount and support such operations over an indefinite period, and we currently are able to exfiltrate agents, in most cases with their families, from the REDTOP countries when it is time for them to leave.In other words, the new CIA took the position that it could not only recruit untested REDTOP walk-ins at foreign embassies but, after they returned to Moscow, it could contact them with impunity, employ them as "resident agents" (or moles), and then, if necessary, smuggle them, and their families, out of Russia. ( Volume 53, p.29) This fearless bluster, presumably had been based on doubts about the efficiency of the Soviet security services-- "The KGB is not 10 feet tall" -- proved to be disastrously short lived. By 1978, the KGB had arrested a large number of the CIA's "resident agents" in Moscow, including Anatoli Filatov, Alexandr Ogorodnik and Vladimir Kalinin, and had used other CIA recruits, such as Sanya Lipavsky, as provocateurs to discredit the dissident movement.The Teheran documents also provide a surprisingly lucid picture of the basic exercises involved in espionage. The "first imperative", according to the January 9th 1973 directive, is to discourage any potential REDTOP dissident from actually defecting. If he does, it will be known to the Soviets, and they can be expected to take measures to nullify the value of his information. Instead, he should be persuaded to return to his post, and maintain secret contact. In CIA parlance, this is a "turn around". In cases where the REDTOP is not a position of access, the CIA explains "we are prepared to guide and assist him in his career [in the Soviet government], running him in place until he develops the access we need". The CIA, in other words, operated on the premise that it could promote Soviet personnel in their careers in the Soviet foreign office, Armed Forces and KGB through supplying them with information and, by doing so, maneuver them into positions where they could steal or intercept secrets that were valuable to the United States. The idea is to develop a mole. "Our ultimate objective is to have the walk-in return to his home country and continue his agent relationship while working inside"(Vol 53, p.28-9)These directives also include the nuts and bolts details of espionage. There are, for example, step-by-step instructions for recruiting for the job of a mole a Soviet Bloc official who contacts a US Embassy ( If the officer on duty doesn't speak his language, there are convenient cards in Russian and Chinese ). First, the walk-in is told to return to his comrades, and say nothing to them about the contact. Then, he is handed a chemical Secret Writing kit [SW] (which allows him to develop invisible addendum to letters). He is also assigned his "Indicator", or code word, which signals that an otherwise innocuous-looking letter contains a message. In return, the Soviet Bloc official is asked to supply a home mailing address or to address an envelope to himself. He is told he can" expect a letter (mailed securely in his own country by a BKHERALD officer) containing an SW message with instructions two to three months after his return"(Vol 53 p.30) Next, the CIA sends a so-called "ops package" to the Soviet Union (or wherever) "containing covert communications materials, reporting requirements and other instructions" for the agent-to-be which is "dead dropped" --IE, stashed in a safe location such as a tree trunk. Finally, a message in secret writing is mailed to him telling the walk-in where to pick up this "ops package". Once he receives this equipment, the recruit becomes a full fledge spy-- photocopying requested documents, answering CIA questionnaires, etc and depositing the data in his dead drop.Other documents in the archives show that the CIA did not merely sit around waiting for REDTOP walk-ins to stray into the embassy. It sets up operations ( "ops") to approach, tempt, compromise and recruit their diplomats and intelligence officers. To begin these "ops", U.S. intelligence officers poured through "biographical" research reports, prepared by U.S. and allied embassies, on Soviet diplomatic personnel in Iran and sifted out from them possibly vulnerable REDTOPS. For example, it was reported that one recently transferred Soviet diplomat's wife had been President Nikolai Kosygin's mistress. If true, it might make him amenable to betraying his country. As it turned out, the report was false (she had merely been Kosygin's secretary), and the "op" was scrapped.(volume 52, pp32-36) After a "target" is finally found, the "op" frequently employed intermediaries, called "access agents" to approach him. The longest such case involved the use of an American doctor, who worked with Soviet doctors in a hospital in Teheran-- for the task of befriending the targets. (Vol 52, pp 44-75) The code name for the agent was "Larry Giel". If the "op" then went well, the REDTOP was then maneuvered into a meeting of the CIA recruiter, who would then attempt to trick or induce him into cooperating. As it turned out, despite persistent efforts by the CIA and Air force intelligence, these "ops" against REDTOPS rarely, if ever, succeeded in Iran (at least not in the published documents). The CIA had more apparent success in recruiting Iranian diplomats in the period following the overthrow of the Shah in 1978. An entire volume of CIA documents is devoted to the intriguing arrangements necessary for clandestine contacts with two such Iranian officials, code named SDLURE and SDROTTER (Volume 9)Beyond such espionage activities, this archive also provides a measure not ordinarily available of the quality of the diplomatic reporting. This cable traffic between U.S. Embassies and Washington-- which is in effect daily, if unpublished, journalism, was based mainly on conversations with foreign diplomats from both friendly and unfriendly nations. In Iran, for example, U.S. political officers regularly sought out their counterparts in the Soviet Embassy, and, while treating them to dinner at the Teheran Steak House, pressed them with questions about Soviet intentions in countries around the world. The answers were presumed to be the quasi-official Soviet line. (In return, the Soviets invited Americans to the Sauna in the Soviet Embassy). (Volume 50, pp 43-88)These messages from foreign sources, reviewed in the hindsight of history, show the extent to which nations used diplomatic contacts to test, manipulate and control their adversaries. The way the Soviet Union used diplomatic channels to de-sensitize the United States to it planned coup in Afghanistan in October 1979 is a case in point. The Soviets were, up until that point, facing a deteriorating situation in Afghanistan. The Socialist government of Taraki and Amin, backed by the Soviets, had seized power in April 1978. But despite over one billion dollars in Soviet economic and military aid, and some 4000 Soviet military advisors, it had been unable to deal with the growing Moslem insurgency, was financed secretly by Saudi Arabia. (Volume 30, pp142-3)The Soviet Union decided in the summer of 1979 to suppress the rebellion, which meant replacing the Afghan leaders (who still retained some claim of independence from Moscow). In preparing this coup, the Soviets sent a series of messages to the American embassy, beginning in June, through both its own Minister, V.S. Safronchuk and the East German Ambassador, Dr. Hermann Schwiesau. As the American Ambassador reported in the secret section of a July 18th cable to Washington. "Over the last 3 weeks, we had hints of a Soviet assisted internal coup both from GDR Ambassador Schwiesau and from...Safronchuk". He explained that Schwiesau had become the "One of our most important sources of.. Moscow's thinking". The message from the East German ambassador was that Moscow would not allow the socialist coup to interfere, even if it meant direct intervention. He explained: "Safronchuk had been given the task, by Moscow, to bring about a `radical change' in the Government" of Afghanistan. Then, spelling out the course of action-- and even giving the approximate date, he "indicated that a military intraparty coup, deposing of Amin and perhaps others, is what the Soviets intend". (Volume 29, pp 180-181) The message of Moscow's plan to pull a coup was pointedly repeated on at least three other occasions that month. In addition, there were reported in the cable traffic numerous instances of undisguised Soviet military moves to support its intervention in Afghanistan. (Volume 30)Finally, the Teheran archive reveals something about US intelligence against its allies, notably Israel. The CIA left intact in the embassy archives in Teheran an extremely damaging 47-page report on Israeli intelligence, called Israel: Foreign Intelligence and Security Services. The March 1979 report was not only classified "SECRET," "NOFORN" ( not releasable to foreign nationals) "NOCONTRACT", ( not releasable to contract employees) and "ORCON" ( originator of the report, the CIA`s counterintelligence staff, controlled who in the American government saw it.) (Volume 11, pp. 1-2) Such labels were necessary because it reveals sources and methods of Israel's most secret intelligence services-- including Mossad and Shin Beth. The report closely defines its foreign targets, its tactics, including "false-flag" recruitments (where Israeli agents pose as NATO officers and "surreptitious entry operations" (for example, break into embassies) and its table of organization, personnel, budgets and liaisons with foreign intelligence services with nations with which Israel does not have diplomatic relations such as China.)The CIA explained "Most of the information in this publication has been derived from a variety of sources including covert assets of the Central Intelligence Agency." And "covert assets" means, in CIA speak, spies, it becomes evident how the CIA obtained at least a portion of Israel's secret documents. It used its moles and other "covert assets" in Israel to furnish it with these documents. They were, it appears, which from the data t provided, would have to be Israeli government employees with access to the most closely held intelligence secrets. These agents in turn had to be recruited and managed by the CIA, which is the essence of espionage. So the CIA was therefore engaged in espionage operations against Israel from 1976-9, when the report in the Teheran Archives was prepared. And, from this espionage, it knew about similar Israel espionage activities against the U.S. The report states, for example, that Mossad routinely "collects" intelligence in the United States through its eighth department. (Volume 11, p.17-18)From a point of view of keeping secret the legitimate workings of U.S. national security mechanism, it would have been better if these documents had been destroyed before the embassy was surrendered. But since these documents have been published, they cannot be ignored. For just as the archive of Soviet documents at Smolensk, captured intact by the German Army in 1941, and subsequently taken from them by the Americans in 1945, gave rise to an new perspective on the governmental operations of the Soviet Union, the Teheran documents provide missing pieces in a multitude of jigsaw puzzles. (Original draft, Updated )