Popular Posts

Wednesday, September 30, 2009

THE U.S. AND IRAN IN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE- by Shaul Bakhash


       THE U.S. AND IRAN IN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

                     by Shaul Bakhash

The U.S.  has had  relations with  Iran ever  since the last
quarter of  the nineteenth  century.  American  missionaries
have been  in Iran  even longer  than that.  But the  United
States' real  engagement with Iran dates only from WWII. The
relationship has  generally been  close,  but  it  has  been
punctuated first  by the  involvement of the CIA in the coup
of 1953  which overthrew  a popular prime minister, Mohammed
Mossadegh, and then by the Islamic Revolution of 1979, which
led to a breach in relations that has not yet been repaired.
Indeed, two  countries that  were  once  close  friends  and
allies now  see each  other,  respectively,  as  the  "Great
Satan" and a member of an "Axis of Evil."

Looking at  how some  of the leading historians and analysts
of the U.S.-Iranian relationship have dealt with this issue,
it's interesting  to note  this constant  sense of  loss, of
what might  have been.  Barry Rubin entitled his work on the
relationship  Paved   with  Good   Intentions;  James   Bill
subtitled his  Eagle and  the  Lion  with  "The  Tragedy  of
Iranian-American Relations."  Gary Sick,  a former member of
the National  Security  Council,  subtitles  his  "America's
Tragic Encounter  with Iran."  A recent  book by  journalist
Barbara Slavin  plays on  this idea  of a  relationship that
might have  been much  better than it is, entitling her book
Bitter Friends, Bosom Enemies.

Between 1945-79,  the U.S.-Iranian  relationship was in some
ways similar  to the U.S.-Saudi relationship, where the U.S.
dealt with  one ruling family. In the case of Iran, the U.S.
dealt with  one ruler,  Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, who came
to the  throne in 1941 and continued to rule for almost four
decades. In  this period, the relationship was governed by a
number of enduring and persistent features.

First, on the American side, the interest in Iran was due in
large part  to the  country's strategic location, bordering,
on the one side, the Persian Gulf and on the other, at least
until the  collapse of the Soviet Union, sharing a very long
border with  America's previous  adversary.  Iran  was  also
important because  of its oil. During the Cold War, Iran was
both a  potential target  of  Soviet  expansionism,  against
which it had to be protected, and a potential and often real
ally in  the struggle  against the Soviet Union. Finally, as
Iran  grew   wealthier  from   oil   revenues,   it   became
increasingly a  market  for  U.S.  goods,  arms,  industrial
equipment, technology, investments, and, during the oil boom
years after  1973, the  employment of  American technicians,
advisers, specialists and the like.

On the Iranian side, first, the U.S. was seen as a potential
protector, initially  against the dominance of the two great
powers that Iran had experienced throughout its 19th-century
and early  20th-century history  - Russia  and Britain;  and
then against  the Soviet  Union. A second persistent feature
of the U.S.-Iranian relationship was Iran's view of the U.S.
not only  as a  patron and protector, but also as an ally in
advancing what  one scholar  has called the Shah's dreams of
grandeur; the  idea that  Iran could  and should  be a great
power, at least in the region.

Iran's 19th-early  20th century  history  with  Britain  and
Russia/the  Soviet  Union  included  wars  with  both  these
powers. Iran  lost territory to both, principally to Russia.
Both countries  were deeply  involved in  Iran's economy and
trade, and  both interfered  extensively in  Iran's internal
affairs and  politics. Beginning  in the  19th century, Iran
sought what  I call  a "third-country  policy"  -  that  is,
trying to find a country that could counterbalance these two
great powers. In the 19th century, it was sometimes Germany,
sometimes  France.   In  the   20th  century,   particularly
beginning in  WWII, Iran  began to look to the U.S. But this
older history  of wariness of great powers has played a role
in Iran's  relations with  the U.S.  as well. A country that
was seen  for the  most part  of the period after 1941 as an
ally, a  great power in its own right, could also be seen as
a country  playing once  again the  imperialist role.  As we
have seen  since the  1979 revolution, it is largely in this
role that  Tehran has  viewed the  U.S  in  the  last  three
decades.

One can  view the  U.S.-Iranian relationship  since WWII  in
four phases.  First, from  1941-53, Iran  sought a protector
and friend; the Shah actively and determinedly sought to woo
the U.S.,  to attract it into a closer relationship. Second,
from 1953  to the  late 1960s (post-overthrow of Mossadegh),
with the  restoration of the Shah, who had fled the country,
to the  throne, as  the result of a coup engineered in large
part by  the CIA  and British  intelligence, was a period in
which Iran  was very  dependent on  the U.S.  - on  American
protection, support,  and aid.  This was not quite a patron-
client relationship, and Iran and the Shah's independence of
the U.S.  grew. But nevertheless, it was clear that the U.S.
was the  senior partner  in the  relationship. Third, in the
period 1973-79,  the relationship  became  much  more  of  a
partnership.  The   shah  was  much  more  stable  at  home,
wealthier, and more adept at handling his foreign relations.
He began  to make  demands. Fourth  and finally, since 1979,
the two  countries have  been adversaries  and have  had  no
direct political and diplomatic relations at all.

WWII AND POST-WWII
When WWII  broke out,  Iran  declared  neutrality.  But  the
Russians and  British invaded  Iran in  August 1941  anyway.
They did so principally for two reasons. First, Iran had had
very close  relations with Germany. The myth that the ruling
monarch of  the time  was pro-fascist/German  has  now  been
addressed and  dismissed.  But  there  was  a  large  German
presence in Iran, and the British feared for the security of
their oil wells in the south, and the Russians for their oil
wells in Baku, across the Iranian border.

Secondly, once  Hitler invaded  Russia in  spring 1941,  the
allies needed  Iran's land route to supply the Russian army.
This would  not have  been impossible  under a neutral Iran,
and therefore  the Russians  and British  decided to  invade
Iran. They  got rid  of the  shah and  placed his son on the
throne.  This  also  brought  American  troops  to  Iran  to
facilitate the  supplies that  moved from  the Persian  Gulf
across Iranian territory to the Soviet Union.

The Shah  courted the  U.S. assiduously  in this  period  as
protection against  the two  great powers  that had occupied
the country.  On the whole, the U.S. was willing to be wooed
and seduced.  Early on  they gave Iran considerable support.
It was the U.S. that persuaded Russia and Britain to sign an
agreement to  withdraw their  troops from  Iran  within  six
months of  the end  of hostilities in the war. The Russians'
behavior in Iran was moderated because of the U.S. presence.

When at  the end  of WWII  the Russians  insisted on keeping
their  troops   in  Iran  and  supported  a  quasi-breakaway
autonomous movement  in the  Iranian province of Azerbaijan,
the U.S.  was very  helpful in  pressuring the  Russians  to
withdraw and  end this  support. Already  during the  war, a
permanent  feature  of  the  U.S.-Iranian  relationship  had
begun. The  Americans sent advisors to assist in building up
the Iranian  army, police,  and  gendarmerie  force  and  to
assist in  other areas  of Iranian  administration  such  as
finance.

The shah, who was always ambitious to build up a large army,
already began  in this  period what became a perennial theme
in the  relationship, which  is to  urge  the  Americans  to
supply his army with more advanced armaments.

MOSSADEGH AND OIL NATIONALIZATION CRISIS
This honeymoon period in the U.S.-Iranian relationship faced
a crisis  in 1951,  during the  movement to  nationalize the
Iranian oil  industry. Iran's  oil  industry  was  the  most
important industry  in the  country. It  was  the  principle
source of  foreign exchange  revenues. It  was  the  largest
employer in  the country.  But it  was  British  controlled.
Iranians had  no say  in the  management of  the company, or
production, or  setting oil  prices. For  years, the British
government had  derived from  the Iranian  oil operation far
more income  than the Iranian government itself. In the late
1940s and  then genuinely in 1951, there began a movement to
nationalize the  oil industry.  This  movement  was  led  by
Mossadegh, who  became Prime  Minister. The oil industry was
in fact  nationalized in March 1951. Then there began a two-
year struggle between Iran and Britain over this act.

During the  Truman administration,  the U.S.  government was
supportive of  Iran.  The  US  was  suspicious  of  the  old
imperial powers,  and supported nationalist movements, which
it thought  were a  good barrier to the spread of communism.
There was  genuine sympathy  with the plight of the Iranians
and their desire for more control of their oil industry. The
Truman administration  was often  in the  position of urging
the British  to  be  more  forthcoming  in  meeting  Iranian
demands.

The British  from the  beginning were  very unsympathetic to
nationalization  and   decided  that  Mossadegh  was  not  a
reasonable man  with whom  they could  deal. They  sought to
have him  removed from  office. They  tried to  persuade the
U.S. to join them in a plot to overthrow him. Truman was not
willing to  go along  with this  idea, but  as soon  as  the
Eisenhower administration  came in,  it was  very receptive.
Both President  Eisenhower's secretary of state, John Foster
Dulles, and  his brother  Allen, the  head of  the CIA, were
Cold Warriors.  JFD believed that neutrality in the Cold War
between the  Soviet bloc  and the  U.S.  was  immoral.  They
joined the  British in a plot which, after some wavering and
uncertainty, did succeed in overthrowing Mossadegh in August
1953.

This was  a seminal event in the modern history of Iran. The
involvement of  the CIA  and British  intelligence in a coup
that overthrew  a properly  elected and  very popular PM has
remained seared  into the Iranian historical imagination and
has colored the relationship U.S.-Iranian relationship.

There were a number of other important repercussions of this
U.S. involvement  in the  overthrow of Mossadegh.  The Shah,
who almost lost his throne over the affair, returned to Iran
in August  1953 determined  that this should never happen to
him again.  After 1953, there was increasing royal autocracy
and  intolerance   for   criticism,   dissent,   independent
political parties,  an independent  press or  an independent
parliament.

Second,  the   shah's  dependence   on  U.S.   support   was
intensified and entrenched. In fact, having brought the shah
back to  power, the  U.S. had a deep interest in seeing that
his regime  was stable  and that  he remained on the throne.
Therefore, he  was  given  not  only  moral  and  diplomatic
support, but financial and other forms of aid as well.

In the  minds of  the Iranian political class, the impact of
this U.S.  involvement was  two-fold. On  the one  hand, the
idea that  America was  different from  the  older  imperial
powers persisted.  The opposition, including Mossadegh's own
party, the National Front, continued to believe that just as
America had  helped Iran  against the  imperialists  in  the
past, it would come back to its senses and help them again.

On the  other  hand,  the  U.S.,  which  had  been  seen  as
supportive of  Iran's national  interests, was  now seen  in
another light. Both these trends of thinking persisted among
the Iranian  political class pretty much down to the time of
the 1979 revolution, although the close alliance of the shah
and the  U.S. in these years, particularly in the late 1960s
and 70s,  these years  of growing  royal autocracy,  clearly
brought  the  Iranian  belief  in  America's  commitment  to
democracy, to put it mildly, under great strain.

These were  also years  in which  the shah, both in terms of
what he  considered  Iranian  national  interests  and  also
because of his reliance on U.S. support, when Iran's foreign
policy was  very  closely  aligned  with  America's  foreign
policy. As  a result,  tensions with the USSR increased, and
Iran was  quick to  join the  Baghdad Pact,  which saw Iran,
Turkey, Pakistan  and Britain  allied together  in a defense
pact with the U.S. an informal partner.

This close  U.S.-Iran alignment  on foreign policy issues in
the 1950s  and the  early 1960s was occurring at a time when
elsewhere in  the Middle  East and  Asia we  saw the rise of
nationalists governments.  In the Middle East in particular,
monarchies seemed  to be  falling like  flies. Revolutionary
officer regimes  were coming  to power  in Egypt,  Iraq  and
Syria.  The   great  nations  of  Asia,  India,  China,  and
Indonesia, were  leading a  non-aligned movement.  Therefore
the shah,  in terms of the broader trends in the Middle East
and the  region, seemed  isolated. All  this did not go very
well with  the  younger  generation  in  Iran,  and  broadly
speaking, with  the educated  middle classes.  The shah  was
pursuing a  foreign  policy,  however  sensible,  one  might
argue, that went against the grain of the dominant political
mood in the country.

The  shah   also  developed,  in  this  period,  very  close
relations with Israel - not because of the U.S., but because
of his own calculations of where Iran's interest lay. He saw
all around  him Arab regimes that were radical, increasingly
allied  to   the  Soviet   Union,  republics   rather   than
monarchies. It made sense then, that the enemy of your enemy
was your  friend, and  Iran's  relations  with  Israel  grew
increasingly in  this period.  Not among  all, but  among  a
significant element in the population, it was unpopular.

The events  surrounding what  became known  as the Status of
Forces  bill  (1964)  -  the  U.S.  just  signed  a  similar
agreement with Iraq, SOFA - also proved controversial. These
SOFA agreements  the U.S.  has with  many countries where it
stations troops  are intended  to protect American troops or
military advisors  in other  countries from  the  "terrible"
local courts.  It in  effect extends  diplomatic immunity to
military personnel  serving in  a foreign  country. In 1964,
the U.S.  pressured a  reluctant shah  and a  very reluctant
parliament and  reluctant government  cabinet to sign a SOFA
to cover  American military personnel in Iran. The agreement
immediately  aroused  memories  of  so-called  capitulations
which were very common in the region in the 19th century and
which also exempted European nationals from the jurisdiction
of native  courts, Iranian  courts  in  the  case  of  Iran,
Ottoman courts  in the  case of the Ottoman empire, Egyptian
courts in  the case  of Egypt.  In fact, Ayatollah Khomeini,
who 15  years later  was to  lead an  Islamic revolution  in
Iran, was  expelled  from  the  country  for  opposing  very
publicly the  status of  forces bill,  which  he  called  an
agreement for the enslavement of Iran.

These were  all ways  in which the U.S.-Iranian relationship
soured in  the 1960s-70s.  But  the  fact  that  the  press,
parliament, and political activity was controlled meant that
the pros  and cons  of this  close relationship the shah had
reached with the U.S. were never openly discussed and public
opinion was never openly articulated.

At the  same time, the shah was never really a client of the
U.S. In  fact, he  always chafed  at having  to do America's
will and  sought to  escape this  tutelage as  quickly as he
could. As  his regime grew more stable, especially as Iran's
oil revenues  increased, he  tried to shake the U.S. off. He
did so  increasingly successfully.  The U.S. was preoccupied
with Vietnam,  the Nixon  doctrine which  led to  the  twin-
pillars policy,  the idea  that regional  powers allied with
the U.S.  should take  responsibility for regional security,
and  that   Iran  and  Saudi  Arabia  should  shoulder  more
responsibility for  Persian Gulf  security, meant  the  U.S.
relied more  and more  on the  shah and  more on him than on
Saudi Arabia,  which  lacked  Iran's  size,  population,  or
military clout.  The Shah  welcomed this,  partly because it
enhanced his  own role and importance, and partly because he
wanted to escape U.S. tutelage.

Then as  oil prices exploded in 1973-74, Iran's oil revenues
quadrupled overnight.  The shah  became not  a debtor to the
U.S. or  the countries  of Europe  but a  creditor. Iran not
only gained  enormous economic  clout, but  also offered the
U.S. in a period of financial stringency and high oil prices
a huge  market for  arms, industrial  equipment, technology,
and employment.

In this  period the U.S. did make a number of serious errors
in Iran,  in addition to doing a number of things correctly.
Aside  from   a  brief   period  under  President  Kennedy's
administration, when  Kennedy pressured  the shah  to  begin
some reforms  in Iran,  particularly to  break up the landed
estates and  give a  greater share  in land ownership to the
peasantry, there  was very  little pressure  in this  entire
period on  the shah  in the  political sphere.  The U.S. was
pleased to see Iran stable and developing. It was developing
spectacularly. The  U. S. was pleased to have a large market
for American  goods. And  as long  as there  was very little
internal  unrest,   it  seemed  that  everything  was  under
control. The  U.S. in  this period,  when it  had weight and
influence in  Iran, missed  opportunities to  guide the shah
politically, internally, in another direction.

Second, the  U.S. was so pleased with the close alliance and
with the  apparent stability  of the  shah's regime  that it
began less  and less to study closely the internal political
situation. We  know now  that a time was reached when at the
shah's insistence,  the CIA  agreed that it would not do its
own intelligence  work in Iran, but would rely on the shah's
sources. When  the boom  in oil prices occurred and the shah
decided to  use this  huge revenue,  less wisely  than other
Gulf  states,   to  try  and  catapult  Iran  into  economic
advancement  and  industrialization,  the  result  was  huge
dislocations in  the economy.  Not only the U.S. but all the
European countries were complicit in an economic policy that
proved in  the end  very destabilizing to the shah's regime.
The attempt  to inject into the economy a significant amount
of money  in  a  very  short  period  of  time  caused  huge
dislocations, and  explains  in  part  the  discontent  that
helped fuel the 1979 Islamic revolution.

When that  revolution took  place,  U.S.-Iranian  diplomatic
relations were  broken and have not been restored since. The
Islamic movement  itself had  from the  beginning  an  anti-
American component.  Khomeini's revolution  was against  the
shah, rooted primarily in internal problems. But it was also
against the  shah's  close  relations  with  the  U.S.  This
stemmed from two very obvious factors. First, after all, the
Americans  had   supported  the  shah,  and  the  opposition
therefore saw the U.S. as complicit in the shah's autocracy.
One also cannot forget that Khomeini was exiled from his own
country and  spent 14  years  initially  in  Iraq  and  then
briefly in France as a result of opposing the SOFA.

Second, Khomeini  both in leading the revolution and then in
stabilizing it once the monarchy had been overthrown, played
very adeptly on anti-American sentiment. The themes of anti-
Americanism, of  America as  the  shah's  supporter,  became
themes not  only of  the revolutionary campaign but of post-
revolutionary Iran as well.

Third, the  seizure  of  the  American  embassy  by  student
radicals and  the taking  of American  diplomats as hostages
had an  enormous impact. Some 50 Americans remained hostages
in  Iran   for  444  days,  from  November  1979  until  the
inauguration of  President Reagan  in 1981.  This has left a
deep impact  on the  American political imagination and also
on the  Iranian one.  For the  Americans, this was a searing
experience; for  the Iranians,  it was  a moment of triumph.
The students who seized the embassy became overnight heroes.

Fourth, there  was the  U.S. position  during the  Iran-Iraq
war. When  the war  broke out,  the U.S.  formally at  least
adopted a  position of neutrality and did not supply arms to
either side.  America hoped the two sides would wear out and
exhaust each  other. But  once Iran  looked as  if it  might
actually win  the war  and bring Saddam down, the U.S. began
to  support   Saddam,  not  only  diplomatically,  but  with
intelligence. The  U.S. also  remained virtually silent when
Saddam used chemical weapons against Iranian troops.

Finally, there  has been  the problem on the Iranian side of
the U.S.  attempt to sanction, isolate and demonize Iran and
to view  Iran as  pursuing policies in Lebanon, on the Arab-
Israeli  conflict,   and  elsewhere,   hostile  to  American
interests.

It's not  as if during these years there was no U.S. attempt
to reach  out to  the Iranians  or  vice  versa.  The  first
president Bush,  in his inaugural address, referring to U.S.
hostages held  in Lebanon  by  Iranian  prot‚g‚s,  used  the
phrase "good  will breeds  good will." The Iranians did then
help secure  the release  of these  remaining U.S. hostages,
but no good will came in reciprocation. Early in the Clinton
administration,  the   president  of  Iran  offered  a  U.S.
company, Conoco, a large oil deal, but Clinton prevented the
deal  from   going  through.   President  Clinton   himself,
especially in  his second  term, attempted  on a  number  of
occasions to reach out to the Iranians without success.

So there  were attempts  in these years to repair relations.
Why didn't  they succeed? First, there was the legacy of the
hostilities of  the past  on both  sides. Second,  there are
concrete issues  dividing the  two countries. In any Iran-US
rapprochement, Iran  would  want  to  see  an  end  to  U.S.
sanctions against  Iran, and an end to America's attempts to
isolate Iran and deny it technology, trade, and credits. The
U.S. would  expect Iran  to change its posture on Israel, to
stop attempting  to be  a spoiler in the Palestinian-Israeli
peace process,  and to  end  its  support  for  groups  like
Hezbollah in  Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza strip hostile to
Israel. Also,  for the  U.S. there's  the  issue  of  Iran's
nuclear program.

In addition,  some forms  of Iranian foreign policy behavior
to which  the U.S.  particularly takes exception have become
very entrenched.  Iran's hostility  to Israel  has become  a
pillar of its foreign policy; its investment in Hezbollah in
Lebanon is a long-standing policy. Iran and the U.S. are now
competitors for influence in the Persian Gulf and the Middle
East. Iran  may be  a small and weak country compared to the
U.S., but  it does  have its  visions of  grandeur. It  sees
itself as  the great  power of  the Persian  Gulf region. It
believes the  U.S. must  make space  for it  at the table in
deciding the  future of Iraq or Afghanistan. One can see how
much at odds the Iranian position is from America's.

The events  in Iran  surrounding the  June 23 elections will
make it  much more  difficult for  President Obama,  who has
tried to  open a  new page  in U.S.-Iran relations, to allow
his senior officials to sit at the table with Iran. But even
had these  events not taken place, U.S.-Iran relations would
remain fraught with difficulties and obstacles.
-----------------------------------------------------

Shaul Bakhash  is the Clarence Robinson professor of history
at George  Mason University.  This essay  is  based  on  his
presentation at  "U.S. Foreign  Policy and the Modern Middle
East," a  Summer Institute  for Teachers  sponsored  by  The
American Institute  for History  Education and  The  Wachman
Center of  the Foreign  Policy Research Institute, held June
25-27, 2009,  in Philadelphia.  

 

0 comments:

Post a Comment