Careful Choreography - Next Round of Senior Officer Promotions & Postings in Army on Pakistan Landscape
Hamid Hussain
Pakistan went thorough a roller coaster ride in the last year. Everyone is focusing on the rapidly changing political change but very little attention has been paid to the fountain of power in Pakistan which is General Head Quarters (GHQ). Last one year of former President Pervez Mussharraf in office saw more fireworks than previous seven years combined. Political upheaval caused by sacking of Chief Justice, rapidly escalating violence not only in Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) but also in major urban centers, assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, emergence of new albeit temporary marriage between two rival political parties in the aftermath of elections was followed by the drop scene of resignation of President Mussharraf. New Army Chief General Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani had many sleepless nights during this time.
Kiyani has been walking a tight rope last one year since his ascension to army chief post. He first disengaged senior brass from direct political management and slowly increased distance between GHQ and President House. Main objective of this exercise was to remove GHQ from the line of fire. He let Mussharraf fight his own battle and when Mussharraf resigned, GHQ took a sigh of relief. In the meantime, Kiyani carefully took full control of GHQ, tinkering with limited number of senior postings and transfers. General Mussharraf had promoted and posted a number of senior officers in April and September 2007 just prior to passing the baton to Kiyani. This put Kiyani in a difficult position as he could not bring his own team quickly. If he had made whole sale changes which normally a new chief brings, this could have a negative impact on the functioning of the army hierarchy as well as putting him in direct conflict with Mussharraf. He proceeded slowly and over several months, only embarked on limited changes. He brought a new Director General Military Intelligence (DGMI) and replaced Corps Commanders of important Mangla and Lahore Corps.
Kiyani is engaged at several fronts including taking full control of army, handling the nightmare unfolding in FATA, careful interaction with political elite and quite interaction with regional and international players. He needs good management of his senior brass to accomplish all other tasks. Kiyani is fully aware of the negative image of the army in view of traumatic events of the last few years under previous army Chief General Pervez Mussharraf. His first priority was political disengagement and he has been successful in this task. Despite serious misgivings, army has no choice but to work with current political set up. Continued violence in FATA and very low approval of army in general are the two major factors which are forcing the army chief's hand.
Army chief's authority is rarely challenged in Pakistan army. General Kiyani became army chief in October 2007 in peculiar circumstances where his former boss after shedding his uniform became President. Kiyani treaded carefully avoiding any direct conflict with Mussharraf while at the same time gently asserted himself at the top. He started with mid level changes first. A number of Brigadiers at important command positions were shuffled as well as several Brigadiers of Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) and Military Intelligence (MI) were shifted. This year was the first time that Kiyani was sitting at head of the table promoting senior officers. In August 2008, 26 Brigadiers were promoted to Major General rank. On September 02, Kiyani embarked on the first second tier shuffle and some newly promoted officers were assigned new positions. Postings of fighting arms of infantry, armor and artillery are the prized positions. Supporting arm postings are secondary and usually do not get much attention. Among the newly promoted officers, Major General Maqsood Ahmad was appointed General Officer Commanding (GOC) of Murree based 12th Division, Major General Ijaz Chaudry GOC of Okara based 40th Division, Major General Muhammad Nawaz GOC of Pannu Aqil based 16th Division and Major General Tanveerullah Khan GOC of Army Aviation Command. Supporting arm postings of newly promoted officers include Major General Khalid Rao of Signals going to Special Communication Organization (SCO). He was earlier Commandant of Military School of Signals. Major General Niaz Kausar of Army Supply Corps (ASC) becoming Director General of PP&A and Major General Rafiq Sabir of Engineers becoming Director General of Housing. These positions matter little in the big picture and are needed to run a large bureaucratic organization. They are essentially a side show.
Other newly promoted officers including Major Generals Asif Nawaz and Shahid Hamid of armored corps and Khawar Hanif and Raza Muhammad of Infantry will likely get command of divisions. Nawaz or Hamid will get the prized position of GOC of 6th Armored Division based in Kharian. This may occur in early October 2008 when more significant changes will occur at several levels. Among the older lot of Major Generals, a reshuffle was done where positions were swapped. Major General Khadim Hussain became GOC of Jehlum based 23rd Division replacing Javed Iqbal. Major General Zaheerul Islam (GOC of 12th Division) and Major General Mumtaz Bajwa (GOC of 16th Division) were transferred to ISI where they will likely replace Major General Nusrat Naeem and Muhammad Arif. Nusrat's career may end soon. It may have been ended sooner when in July 2006; he was involved in a shameful incident. After a petty fight among youngsters at school, some ISI officers were sent to teach a lesson to the offending boy's family. They manhandled the family which included the grandfather of the boy who happened to be an 80 year old decorated retired officer of army; Brigadier Muhammad Taj (he won Sitara Jurat in 1965 war and a second one which is called Bar in 1971 war). There was utter disgust among army officers. If Nusrat had given direct orders for this act, then he should have been asked to put his papers. Nusrat's career was saved by his close association with then army Chief General Mussharraf and personal apology to Brigadier Taj. Junior officers involved got different treatment. The poor Major was sent back to his unit with adverse report thus effectively ending his career while the retired Colonel on contract had his contract cancelled and everybody lived happily after. Leadership is not about protecting friends and buddies but to uphold at least some professional standard to preserve the integrity of the institution.
Major senior level changes are expected in early October 2008 when a number of senior officers will be retiring. Kiyani will take this opportunity to move some other senior officers and bring in new Major Generals. He will probably divide these changes in two or three series for smooth transition. He will either go for top tier changes first followed by second tier but in my view he will do the second tier first to put his confidants at command positions. If few generals are superceded, then the job of Kiyani will become easier as he will not need to juggle a lot of balls and superceded lot will get premature retirement (In March 2001 promotions, twelve Major Generals were superceded). Such transfers and postings are norm in every army and rarely get any attention. In view of dominant position of military in country's affairs, such promotions and transfers are subject of lot of juicy stories, anecdotes, conjectures and rumors.
Chief of General Staff (CGS) Lt. General Slahuddin Satti, Gujranwala Corps Commander Lt. General Waseem Ahmad Ashraf, Military Secretary (MS) Lt. General Muhammad Sabir, Adjutant General (AG) Lt. General Imtiaz Hussain, Quarter Master General (QMG) Lt. General Muhammad Afzal Muzzafar, Inspector General of Training & Evaluation (IGT&E) Lt. General Hamid Rab Nawaz and Director General Joint Staff Lt. General Athar Ali will be hanging their boots in first week of October. A major reshuffle of Lt. General rank will occur at that time. Newly promoted Lt. Generals as well as some from existing lot will be accommodated to these slots. This will also give Kiyani the opportunity to reshuffle some other senior commanders. Among the existing lot of Lt. Generals, we may see a new head of ISI, and changes in command of several corps. Multan and Karachi Corps will see new commanders and most likely Corps Commander of Peshawar will be replaced. There is also a strong possibility of change of Rawalpindi and Quetta Corps commanders. Peshawar Corps Commander Lt. General Masood Aslam (20 Punjab), Bahawalpur Corps Commander Raza Muhammad Khan (Gunner), Multan Corps Commander Lt. General Sikandar Afzal (Armored Corps) and Karachi Corps Commander Ahsan Azhar Hayat (19th Lancers) will be likely brought to GHQ in third tier positions of QMG, IGT&E or a similar assignment. Current Vice Chief of General Staff (VCGS) Lt. General Muhammad Yusuf and Deputy Chief of General Staff (DCGS) Lt. General Javed Zia may become lucky to get the command of a corps.
Top two stars who will be in the race for third star are current Director General Military Operations (DGMO) Major General Ahmad Shujah Pasha who if promoted may get the command of a Corps. Commandant of Military Academy Major General Zahid Hussain (Gunner) is also a good candidate for the third star. He had earlier served as GOC of 15th Division. GOC of Special Service Group (SSG) Major General Tahir Mahmud Malik (Punjab) may win a third star and brought into the inner circle of decision making. Current Inspector General Frontier Corps (IGFC) N.W.F.P. Major General Muhammad Alam Khattak (PIFFER, nick name for Frontier Force Regiment officers) is also in the run and if promoted will either get Peshawar Corps or a staff position at GHQ. If he does not get the third star, the main reason will be unsuccessful peace deals with militants. GOC of 8th Division Major General Jahangir Khan, DG Rangers Sindh Major General Liaqat Ali (he has served as GOC of 9th Division in Kohat), DG Rangers Punjab Major General Haroon Aslam, and Commandant of Staff College Major General Khalid Nawaz are also in the run for the third star.
The most important Major General rank position is DGMO and top contenders of this position are GOC of 7th Division Major General Naseer Janjua (his troops are fighting militants in Swat) and GOC 14th Division Major General Tariq Khan (his troops are engaged in Waziristan). Janjua or Tariq are ideal choice as they have been in the trenches and have first hand experience of ground realities and DGMO job will be to coordinate these operations. Lahore based 10th and 11th Infantry Divisions will see new commanders. Major General Raheel Sharif (PIFFER), currently GOC of 11th Division may end up Commandant of Military Academy at Kakul. Major General Shaukat Sultan (Sindh) may go to an instructional appointment. It is unlikely that either Raheel or Shaukat will be considered for the third star when their time comes but luck may smile on Raheel in view of some weight of the family's traditions. His late brother Major Shabbir Sharif was one of the most decorated officer winning gallantry award of Sitara-e-Jurat in 1965 war and Highest gallantry award Nishan-e-Haider posthumous in 1971 war. In the next phase, three Director Generals of Inter Service Public Relations (DGISPR); two former and one incumbent will be scrutinized for further advancement. Major General Waheed Arshad (former DGISPR and currently Director General Planning at Army Chief's Secretariat) has a better chance than Major General Athar Abbas (current DGISPR). The third one, former DGISPR and presently GOC of 10th Division Major General Shaukat Sultan may not be as lucky. Several divisions commanders will be shuffled as a number of them have been at their posts for about two years.
After the promotion and posting cycle is done in October 2008, the real task of Kiyani will be to maintain the current delicate balance. He needs to stay clear from the political intrigues and focus on army and interact constructively with regional and international players. Army is still entrenched in its traditional role of a peace time army. Current challenges need fresh evaluation of assumptions. In the coming years, major challenges will be internal. Military leadership has not yet fully absorbed the strategic vulnerability of Pakistan. GHQ needs to open some windows allowing some fresh air. More cerebral officers should be encouraged to discuss and debate various options. In house thinking process needs to streamlined and a certain amount of dissent has always done well rather than harm to the institution. GHQ should continue the current course de-escalation along Line of Control with India. Senior brass should resist pressure from below to keep the India bogey alive. Increasing role of India in Afghanistan is causing a lot of apprehension but more patience and wisdom rather than knee jerk reaction is needed. In current difficult times, after some stability, military should be pulled a little back. Army can not rely solely on the coercive arm and economic and political aspects need to be incorporated into the strategic thought process. In this exercise, GHQ needs to work with political leadership whatever its quality. Every one should be on board to solve difficult problems. Army can not be deployed indefinitely in internal security duty and this simple fact should be the guiding principle when planning for the end game.
Pakistan is faced with several internal and external dilemmas and to handle these complex issues some consensus among civilian and military leaders is essential. Military has been a dominant institution throughout the sixty year history of the country and it will be naïve to expect that this equation will change overnight. In mildest terms, decision making process in Pakistan has become dysfunctional. A balance in civil military relations hinge on the decision of military to allow politicians to play their role and restraint on part of the politicians to not to overplay their hand as far as military is concerned. The only way civilian leaders will get their legitimacy is by focusing on improving governance. If their modus operandi is solely based on Byzantine intrigues and no responsible decision making then they will not remain in the corridors of power for long. The threat this time is not simply overthrow and exile at the hands of military but now some wounded wolves are lurking in the dark and this extremist fringe is out for the blood of not only the army but also civilian power holders. Military leadership should learn by now that taking control of the government is an easy task but governing a country like Pakistan can be a nightmare. It should resist both its own instincts and advice of many 'well wishers' to fine tune the political process. GHQ should let the political parties fight their battles in parliament and media and should not embark on the 'trimming' and 'pruning' of political parties.
Current military leadership will try to stay at the sidelines as long as politicians do not cross the red lines. If they start to tinker with internal army affairs, then army chief will have the full support of senior brass to work behind the scene to straighten out few things. In near future, there is no risk of army gate crashing the party again. This will happen only if there is a total 'train wreck' where either economic meltdown or complete chaos and anarchy engulfs large parts of the country and civilians are unable to manage the crisis. There is an old saying that 'show them the death and they will love fever' and only in such dire crisis general public may accept the inconvenience of fever again.
Kiyani's job for the next two years is to bring a new team and work carefully with them to stay clear of political fireworks but to maintain a major say in important national security decisions. Ongoing military operations are putting a strain on the army and he will try to shift some of the burden on civilians. What is happening in Pakistan is now no more mere Pakistan's concern. United States and Europe have genuine apprehensions about demons coming out of FATA and threatening the current order. Deep mistrust, extremely volatile situation along Durand Line and frustration of all parties has created a very volatile situation. Serious miscalculation by any party can add more fuel to the raging fire which can burn many more fingers. Recent deep forays into Waziristan by airborne U.S. Special Forces and Pakistan stopping supplies going to Afghanistan are bad omens. U.S. needs to at least take into consideration Pakistan's dilemmas and interests in its decision making process even if it does not fully agree or respect those interests. Everyone agrees about the threat emanating from lawless areas along Durand Line, it is the deep mistrust which is preventing coordinated efforts to handle this complex and difficult problem.
Pakistan army brass will be confronting internal and external challenges and they surely need to work overtime. They will need some consensus among general population and political elite for the journey through the internal, regional and international minefields. Jubilant politicians also need a good dose of humility and comprehend severe limitations under which Pakistan needs to operate. There will be differences among civilian and uniformed holders of power and this is normal. However both parties need to comprehend the gravity of situation and try to work their differences and avoid direct clash. Pakistan is the first country which experienced successful secession of its Eastern Wing in post Second World War era and they should not forget those painful lessons so quickly. A stable, peaceful and prosperous Pakistan is in the best interest of world peace and most importantly for Pakistanis.
Dr. Hamid Hussain is an independent analyst based in New York.
Hamid Hussian
September 6, 2008
0 comments:
Post a Comment