My Friend Ravi Rikhyes Assessment of US Strategy in Afghanistan

I have known Ravi Rikjye since 2000.A brilliant military writer it was an honour to be a member of his www.orbat.com.He is a part of our Indo Pak Wars Blog here too.

Agha Amin


My Friend Ravi Rikhyes Assessment of US Strategy in Afghanistan

by

www.orbat.com


Rumor says US commanders to ask for extra 5 Afghan brigades Our only advice is: rescind the request and redefine the missions to protecting the five main cities and during daylight hours the routes in between.

America is turning against the Afghan war; ironically this is because the military has told the truth, that the war is going very badly and we could lose. This is not what the public wants to hear as we close up on the end of 8 years in Afghanistan. And they especially don't want to hear rationalizations about why this has happened.

Other factors are in play. Americans are upset about the Afghan election, and it really is no use to tell them, look, a democracy takes decades to build, particularly when the state is so backward. This election was far from perfect, but it was also far better than no election at all, but when people are tired of a war, it doesn't matter what you say.

Perfect example is Vietnam, where the US had actually managed to create a reasonably functional and reasonably secure state. That is why the North Vietnamese had to openly invade in 1972 and 1975, they would have lost for good had they waited. But Americans were so fed up, the US Congress wouldn't even sanction ~$5-billion in war material (in today's money) for the South Vietnam forces, and it wouldn't let the US use just its airpower. (US ground troops had been withdrawn by the time the final offensive came.)

If US commanders insist on another five brigades on top of already sanctioned reinforcements and existing forces, we are going to be almost at the level of Iraq pre-surge. Americans do not want the US withdrawing from Iraq simply to get involved in another war of the same magnitude potentially lasting many more years than Second Iraq.

US government, military, and elite have to understand that American war weariness has reached the point that making sophisticated arguments will actually turn people off. what do we mean sophisticated argument? Here's one: Afghanistan has more people and its communication network is far more primitive than Iraq's, so we need more troops.

Absolutely true. But the argument completely begs the point: what was US doing in Afghanistan for 8 years? Why weren't the Afghan forces built up quicker? And please don't give sophisticated answers to that question, because it will be sophistry: no one, but no one, requires 8 years to build up an army that can produce less than half-a-dozen brigades for combat.

US government etc has acted like it had 30 years to do the job in Afghanistan, that they could proceed at leisure and in as ham-handed a fashion as possible, and American people would not give a little peep.

Mr. Bush managed to befuddle the American public for years, so that the masses were not asking what the heck was happening in Iraq and why. But with Mr. Bush gone, the people are no longer held in thrall, and they are stepping blinking hard into the bright sunshine and starting to ask awkward questions for which US government has no answers.

For example: why are we fighting in Afghanistan to give the people human rights when the government helps Afghan men suppress the rights of women?

The American government and military have gotten spoiled and fat on endlessly expanding budgets coupled with no questions asked by Congress. They have NOT done a good job in Afghanistan; indeed, in Editor's estimation, they have done a thoroughly bad job. Ditto Iraq, which thanks to the incredible hard work of the field people and a lot of luck, came out well enough in the end that we can disengage.

But does the US government/military really think the people will agree if tomorrow you tell them: we have to send 10 brigades back to Iraq? Next election, Americans will throw their elected representatives out.

So, to get back to out advice. Redefine Afghanistan solely as mission to provide training and security for the five major cities. Do not, even once, talk of America defeating the Taliban. Talk about how the Afghans will defeat the Taliban. Set a hard deadline: forget this nonsense of "we don't set deadlines because that plays into enemy hands". In real life no one would get the simplest jobs done if no deadlines existed. even in such a black-white situation as World War 2, can you imagine what would have happened if the war had gone on 8 years and the US government said: "We are losing and it will decades to prevail and even then there are no guarantees?" Deadlines also force Afghanis to get their act together or face the consequences.

If at deadline the Afghans have their act together, declare victory and rejoice. if they haven't, say "we gave it out best shot, it isn't our job to care more Afghanistan than its people, and we're out."