A.H Amin
The US invasion of Afghanistan under the umbrella of a UN resolution as part of an international invasion force was a watershed in the history of modern warfare.While the 1990 Gulf war was a limited conventional war followed by a quick withdrawal the US invasion of Afghanistan was a far more complicated affair. As an ex officer of the Pakistan Army from 1981 to 1993 and as a civilian contractor from 1993 till to date following are my observations about the US counter insurgency operations in Afghanistan. The Northern Alliance The main US partner Northern Alliance was essentially a Russian creation.From 1986 the Soviet Afghan intelligence had started concluding secret agreement known as protocolas with various Afghan Mujahideen groups.Thus by 1989 when the Soviets withdrew some 60 % of Mujahideen groups had some sort of protocol with the Afghan leftist government.This meant that Mujahids were overt recipients of US aid and covert recipients of some Soviet aid or beneficiaries of a mutually concluded secret ceasefire.Also then unknown to many the Soviets had decided in principle to accept a take over of Kabul by parties which later came to be known as Northern Alliance keeping in view the fact that they were considered more moderate and politically acceptable.
Thus Kabul was literally handed over to the Jamiat of Ahmad Shah Masud.Most leftist Parchamis and some Khalqis switched over their loyalty and became Mujahids overnight.Later the same party was regrouped as what we now know as the Northern Alliance. The USA realised that Massoud was their best bet but politically the Russians were thev winners.Thus Russia became the main supporter of the Northern Alliance while the USA also gave some lollipops to Massoud.Politically Russians were paramount. Interestingly most Khalqis who were Pashtuns mostly joined Hekmatyars Hizbe Islami and later the more famous or notorious Taliban. Thus both the Northern Alliance and the Taliban had a Russian connection. The Taliban The Taliban who emeged in 1994 and captured Kabul in 1996 were a Pashtun heavy party whose midwife was Pakistans ISI.This test tube baby of the ISI ironically became more and more independent and by 2001 was asserting itself.
The US invasion of 2001 and the Pakistani turn around , known as betrayal in Taliban circles transformed the Taliban from a foreign sponsored party into a more indigenous Afghan political entity. After 2001 by an irony of history the Taliban found many other regional partners like the Iranians,Russians,Gulf Arab states,Saudi Arabia and some assert even the Chinese.All this happened because all regional playsrs saw the Taliban as a force whose manipulation was in their particular national interest. Though officially the Pakistani military was now a US ally , some contact was maintained with Taliban tacitly,however the Pakistani turn around,did introduce a major loss of credibility for the Pakistani military in the eyes of the Taliban.
No tangible military objective
The US forces had no tangible military objectives.They were dispersed in east and south Afghanistan with a strong presence at Kabul,Bagram and Kandahar.Their numbers were so low that when the Taliban started resurging after the initial shock and awe of the US bombing offensive in 2002-3 there was little US ground troop strength to counter them.While the initial US campaign had tangible objectives,after 2001 there were little tangible objectives.From 2002 the US developed a fixation with Waziristan as the centre of gravity of Al Qaeda little concrete objectives were achieved.The USA pressurised the Pakistan Army into a ground offensive in Waziristan and later in Bajaur,Mohmand etc however little was achieved other than more destabilisation of Pakistan and greater Taliban control of Afghanistan.
Open Borders
Afghanistans 90 % border is open with no border force of any minimum acceptable military effectiveness.Some border outposts exist but these are of symbolic value only.This makes infiltration of weapons and personnel an easy affair.As a result from 2004 particularly heavy influx of weapons and money started .By 2007 the Taliban became so strong that one could not travel from Kabul to Ghazni or from Kabul to Kandahar.While Waziristan was pounded by drones bo effort was made to seal the borders or to interdict inflow of weapons and men.
US counter insurgency effectiveness
The US force levels were so low that the US or NATO for that matter did not mount any major ground offensive to hitb the Taliban areas of strength in Helmand or Kandahar.While Waziristan was pounded Taliban infiltration continued un abated from Pakistani Balochistan.Since ground forces were less the US relied on aerial bombing which did not break the Talibans military effectiveness and killed many non combatants.
An unwilling NATO
NATO marked time less British,Dutch and to some extent French although more cosmetically.The Turks,Germans,Italians were the worst malingerers and dodgers.The puny British force at Camo Bastion was an apology of a counter insurgency force.The Canadians and Dutch although well motivated were also crippled because of low fiorce levels.
A fallacious belief that covert operations could destroy the Taliban/Al Qaeda
Drone attacks,special operations cannot decide the outcome of an insurgency.They may have an effect but in Afghanistan and tribal areas a limited one.
Afghanistan as Casablanca of the region
Many regional powers established themselves in Afghanistan with their own agendas.These included Indians,Israelis,Russians,Chinese,French etc.The USA could not control or check their activities.This made the US military task a failure and also created many suspicions in Pakistan. Ambiguous position of Pakistan,Russia and Iran All these powers have their own interests and their role in the war has been ambiguous.
US Decision makers as wet pussies
In 2005-2006 I developed friendship with a US Second Secretary in US Embassy in Kabul.Doug Scherer was a committed,hard working professional.He summed up his superiors in state departnment and Pentagon as a bunch of wet pussies.I entirely agree with this assertion.
What USA stands to lose if it withdraws
All the good will that the USA gained by re-building infrastructure and generating jobs in 8 years would be irrevocably lost.The vacuum will be immediate;y filled by Russia,Iran,India and even China in the north and by the Taliban and Al Qaeda in the south.This would be an irrevocable strategic failure of USA and may be the commencement of the Clasusewitzian culminating point of USA.
Taliban benefits in case of US withdrawal
Freed from US Army the Taliban and Al Qaeda will launch attacks against Pakistan Army with full force and the Pakistan Army would be committed fully in Counter Insurgency Operations thus leaving no forces to face India.There is a possibility that Pakistan may re-start infiltration in Kashmir.In both scenarios India Pakistan conflict is most likely.
Conclusion
1-The USA has to devise a strategy to seal the Afghan borders and create an effective border force in Afghanistan.
2-The USA has to devise a concrete strategy to reduce role of regional actors in Afghanistan.
3-While retaining key bases the USA has to build the Afghan national forces.This would be economical and cost effective.
4-At some stage the USA has to withdraw while retaining some key bases and make the Russians,Indians,Chinese and Pakistanis fight each other.With a US sword of Damocles at BAGRAM,JALALABAD,KANDAHAR,HERAT AND MAZAR the Taliban will think twice before embarking on any major adventure.
2-The USA has to devise a concrete strategy to reduce role of regional actors in Afghanistan.
3-While retaining key bases the USA has to build the Afghan national forces.This would be economical and cost effective.
4-At some stage the USA has to withdraw while retaining some key bases and make the Russians,Indians,Chinese and Pakistanis fight each other.With a US sword of Damocles at BAGRAM,JALALABAD,KANDAHAR,HERAT AND MAZAR the Taliban will think twice before embarking on any major adventure.
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